|
Year
|
Temp
|
(Temp)2
|
Elevation (high vs. low)
|
ns(Date, df = 2)
|
Elevation* ns(Date, df = 2)
|
Estimate Temp
|
Estimate (Temp)2
|
AIC
|
Resid trend
|
|---|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
0.23
|
0.0066
|
5838.6
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
| |
0.22
|
0.0062
|
5872.42
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
| |
X
| |
0.22
|
0.0062
|
5882.58
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
| | |
0.31
|
0.0092
|
5893.2
|
Yes
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
| | | |
0.31
|
0.009
|
5593.62
|
Yes
|
|
X
|
X
| |
X
|
X
|
X
|
0.040
| |
5847.86
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
| |
X
|
X
| |
0.049
| |
5881.1
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
| | |
X
| |
0.050
| |
5891.34
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
| |
X
| | |
0.056
| |
6003.92
|
Yes
|
|
X
|
X
| | | | |
0.056
| |
6014.36
|
Yes
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
0.24
|
0.0069
|
5847.18
|
No
|
| |
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
| |
0.22
|
0.0062
|
5872.42
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
| |
X
| |
0.24
|
0.0068
|
5893.62
|
No
|
| |
X
|
X
|
X
| | |
0.31
|
0.0094
|
5996.04
|
Yes
|
| |
X
|
X
| | | |
0.31
|
0.0094
|
6006.56
|
Yes
|
| |
X
| |
X
|
X
|
X
|
0.048
| |
5857.68
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
| |
X
|
X
| |
0.048
| |
5894.48
|
No
|
|
X
|
X
| | |
X
| |
0.048
| |
5904.76
|
No
|
| |
X
| |
X
| | |
0.049
| |
6017.82
|
Yes
|
| |
X
| | | | |
0.049
| |
6028.36
|
Yes
|
- Inclusion of a 2nd degree term for temperature improves the AIC-value. ns = natural cubic spline, * = interaction, resid trend = “Yes” means that there is a time trend in the residuals. X = term included in the model. Bold face indicates the chosen prevailing weather model. Note that this model is the same as the best model from Table 2 with parameter estimates presented in Table 3.
