Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections

Table 1 Summary of baseline (pre-control) modelled epidemiological scenarios

Pre-control endemicity	Annual biting rate (ABR)^§†	Annual transmission potential (ATP)^¶†	Microfilarial prevalence in all ages	Microfilarial prevalence in those aged ≥ 5 years^‡	Mean microfilarial intensity*in all ages (mf/mg)	Mean microfilarial intensity*in those ≥ 20 yr (mf/mg)
Mesoendemic	7,300	88	40%	47%	11.2	18.7
Hyperendemic	15,470	373	60%	67%	23.9	40.0
Highly hyperendemic	85,800	4,290	80%	84%	58.9	98.0

^§Modelled annual biting rate (ABR): the average number of (S. damnosum s.str./S. sirbanum) bites to which a person is exposed during a whole year.
^¶Modelled annual transmission potential (ATP): the average number of infective larvae (L3) of O. volvulus potentially received during a whole year by a person exposed to the annual biting rate; model assumes perennial transmission.
^†Both the ABR and ATP are for a proportion of vector blood meals of human origin equal to 0.3[21].
^‡Nodule prevalence (recorded by APOC) is converted to microfilarial load in this age range[36].
*Arithmetic mean microfilarial load per mg of skin; note that this is different to the community microfilarial load (CMFL), which is the geometric mean microfilarial load per skin snip in those aged 20 years and above)[37].

ISSN: 1756-3305