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Table 3 Best fit models of Arvicanthis niloticus abundance above 1300 m with climate and crop variables

From: Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission

Model R 2 AIC ∆AIC Model parameters Parameter estimate
Climate variables only – Above 1300 m
1 0.50 −217.3 0 Precipitation – 6 month lag −0.56
Precipitation – 4 mo. Lag 0.37
2 0.48 −215.6 1.7 Precipitation – 6 mo. Lag −1.4
Mean temperature – 0 mo. lag 0.83
Climate and crop variable – Above 1300 m
1 0.69 −232.3 0 Maize/Millet harvest – 0 mo. lag 0.47
Nut harvest – 4 mo. Lag 0.53
2 0.68 −231.0 1.3 Maize/Millet harvest – 0 mo. lag 0.51
Bean harvest – 4 + 5 mo. Lag 0.51
  1. Model r2, AIC, and ∆AIC values and parameter estimates for all models with ∆AIC <2 and parameter estimates significant at an α = 0.05 confidence level. ∆AIC represents the difference between a model’s AIC value and the AIC value of the best fit overall model. Parameter estimate values are expressed as a change in abundance per 100 trap nights as a result of a 1°C increase in temperature, 100 mm increase in precipitation, or per each additional homestead at a trapping location harvesting a given crop.