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Figure 5 | Parasites & Vectors

Figure 5

From: Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities

Figure 5

City-level summary of full-model fits for three cities. Models were fitted using neighborhood-level data but aggregated to the city level for presentation. Observed data (black lines; solid: in-sample, dashed: out-of sample); model predictions (blue lines; solid: in-sample, dashed: out-of sample), 97.5% credible intervals (red shades: in-sample; pink shades: out-of-sample). Insets display the neighborhood-level fits (black points: in-sample data; pink points: out-of-sample data). Best full model from each city is presented. (A) Vitoria: Y i,t = β 1 M i,t-13  + β 2 Y i,t-1  + β 3 M i,t-1 Y i,t-1  + β 4j M j,t-5 0.1 + β 5 j (Y j,t-1 /d ij ) 0.5 + β 6j(M j,t-1 Y j,t-1 /d ij ) 0.1 + log(P i ) + π i. (B) GV: Y i,t = β 1 M i,t-2  + β 2 Y i,t-1  + β 3 M i,t-4 Y i,t-4 + β 4j M j,t-1 2 + β 5 j (Y j,t-1 D j ) 0.1 + β 6j(M j,t-1 Y j,t-1 D j ) 0.5 + log(P i ) + π i. (C) SL: Y i,t = β 1 M i,t-6  + β 2 Y i,t-1  + β 3 M i,t-1 Y i,t-1  + β 4j M j,t-6 0.1 + β 5 j (Y j,t-1 R j ) 0.001 + β 6j(M j,t-1 Y j,t-1 R j ) 0.1 + log(P i ) + π i.; notation is as in Figure 4.

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