Figure 6

Credible intervals for each covariate in the mosquitoes-only models (A) and the full models (B). Vitoria (black), GV (blue), SL (red). Thick solid lines are covariates in the best model selected from Vitoria data: Y _i,t = β ₁ M _i,t-13  + β ₂ Y _i,t-1  + β ₃ Y _i,t-1 M _i,t-13  + β ₄∑_j M _j,t-5 ^0.1 + β ₅∑ _j (Y _j,t-1 /d _ij ) ^0.5 + β ₆∑_j(M _j,t-5 * Y _j,t-1 /d _ij ) ^0.1 + log(P _i ) + p _i. Thin dashed lines are for the best models from the other cities: GV: Yi,t = β ₁ M _i,t-2  + β ₂ Y _i,t-1  + β ₃ M _i,t-4 Y _i,t-4  + β ₄∑_j M _j,t-1 ² + β ₅∑ _j (Y _j,t-1 D _j ) ^0.1 + β ₆∑_j(M _j,t-1 Y _j,t-1 D _j ) ^0.5 + log(P _i ) + π _i ; SL: Y _i,t = β ₁ M _i,t-6  + β ₂ Y _i,t-1  + β ₃ M _i,t-1 Y _i,t-1  + β ₄∑_j M _j,t-6 ^0.1 + β ₅∑ _j (Y _j,t-1 R _j ) ^0.001 + β ₆∑_j(M _j,t-1 Y _j,t-1 R _j ) ^0.1 + log(P _i ) + π _i.