# Table 2 Regression coefficients for analysis of district level new case detection rates

Model Time trend Covariate Interaction Enhanced CFA Marginal R 2 Conditional R 2
I. Time only − 0.0182 - - - 0.0014 0.993
(− 0.027 to − 0.0035) - - -
II. Case finding activity − 0.0237 - - 0.0811 0.0021 0.993
(− 0.036 to − 0.011) - - (0.021 to 0.21)
III. TB, time − 0.0234 − 8.83 × 10− 5 - 0.0646 0.0016 0.994
(− 0.04 to − 0.0058) (− 0.00015 to 0.00047) - (− 0.0078 to 0.22)
IV. TB, time, interaction − 0.0625 − 0.00173 5.57 × 10− 4 0.0529 0.002 0.994
(− 0.093 to − 0.046) (− 0.0027 to − 0.0011) (0.00036 to 0.00089) (− 0.025 to 0.19)
V. BCG, time − 0.0236 − 0.00738 - 0.0787 0.0078 0.993
(− 0.036 to − 0.012) (− 0.016 to 0.0088) - (0.0091 to 0.21)
VI. BCG, time, interaction − 0.177 − 0.00924 0.00178 0.0885 0.0047 0.993
(− 0.25 to − 0.088) (− 0.016 to 0.0068) (7 × 10− 4 to 0.0026) (0.023 to 0.22)
VII. Fraction grade 2, time − 0.0171 2.34 × 10− 4 - 0.213 0.0073 0.993
(− 0.03 to − 0.0062) (0.00019 to 0.00039) - (0.14 to 0.39)
VIII. Fraction grade 2, time, interaction − 0.0195 − 9.82 × 10− 4 4.04 × 10− 4 0.213 0.0072 0.993
(− 0.034 to 0.0043) (− 0.0046 to 0.011) (− 0.0034 to 0.0016) (0.16 to 0.38)
IX. Fraction children, time − 0.0227 0.00379 - 0.135 0.0035 0.993
(− 0.039 to − 0.012) (− 0.0072 to 0.009) - (0.058 to 0.28)
X. Fraction children, time, interaction 0.0166 0.0259 − 0.00496 0.144 0.0039 0.993
(− 0.0083 to 0.041) (0.0081 to 0.04) (− 0.0077 to − 0.0026) (0.081 to 0.29)
XI. Fraction MB, time − 0.0226 0.0567 - 0.127 0.0026 0.993
(− 0.039 to − 0.013) (− 0.21 to 0.16) - (0.046 to 0.29)
XII. Fraction MB, time, interaction − 0.127 − 0.83 0.178 0.142 0.0037 0.993
(− 0.2 to − 0.083) (− 1.5 to − 0.52) (0.092 to 0.30) (0.076 to 0.32)
1. The specific statistical models are specified in the Appendix. All models include calendar time in years, and all models except for the base model include a term “Enhanced CFA” indicating whether a particular district-year corresponds to one of the 209 districts selected for enhanced case finding activity. Models include tuberculosis incidence (state level), the average BCG coverage (state level), percent of grade 2 disability at diagnosis (state level), percent of cases in children (state level), or the fraction multibacillary (state level). Interaction with time is omitted, and then included, in each model in turn. Marginal R 2 values indicate the fraction of variance explained by the fixed effects, and conditional R 2 indicate the fraction of variance explained by both fixed and random effects; see text. Confidence intervals derived by spatial block bootstrap (with a radius of 1.5°; see text for details)