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Table 2 Summary of models and modelling comparison results

From: Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Model Assumptions Relative likelihood of model (from DIC) Notes
Humans Animals
Random participation Non-participation
Low-risk High-risk Low-risk High-risk
1 a      < 10− 100 Least good fit
2     ≈ 10− 5 Implausible parameterisation
3      < 10− 100 Poor fit
4      0.955 Good fit
5   0.026 No improvement over Model 4 but more parameters
6 a     ≈ 10− 9  
7    1 Best fit
  1. aModels 1 and 6 have homogeneous risk for all humans, which is equivalent to all humans being “low-risk” = included as a distinct host category in the model