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Table 2 Summary of models and modelling comparison results

From: Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Model

Assumptions

Relative likelihood of model (from DIC)

Notes

Humans

Animals

Random participation

Non-participation

Low-risk

High-risk

Low-risk

High-risk

1

a

    

< 10− 100

Least good fit

2

   

≈ 10− 5

Implausible parameterisation

3

 

  

< 10− 100

Poor fit

4

  

 

0.955

Good fit

5

 

0.026

No improvement over Model 4 but more parameters

6

a

   

≈ 10− 9

 

7

  

1

Best fit

  1. aModels 1 and 6 have homogeneous risk for all humans, which is equivalent to all humans being “low-risk” = included as a distinct host category in the model