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Table 4 Progression to KA depending on change in serology status from first survey to second survey. Hazard ratios and p-values estimated from fitted Cox proportional hazard models. Sero-status: seronegative (−), seropositive (+), strongly seropositive (++)

From: Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control

Group First survey Second survey Total evaluated Progressors (%) Hazard ratio (95 % CI) p
Non-convertors - - 1103 10 (1 %) Ref. N/A
+ +
Sero-deconvertors +/++ - 145 2 (1 %) 1.54 (0.34–7.02) 0.58
++ +
Seroconvertors - + 95 4 (4 %) 4.73 (1.48–15.1) 0.009
Strong seropositives ++ ++ 11 4 (36 %) 61.5 (19.3–196) 3.5 × 10−12
Strong seroconvertors −/+ ++ 18 13 (72 %) 165 (74.6–365) <2 × 10−16