Back-calculating the incidence of infection of leprosy in a Bayesian framework

Parasites & Vectors

Table 2 Summary of posterior probability distributions of the shape parameters for the incubation period and detection delay distributions (α _i:o and α _o:d) and the common rate parameter (β)

Parameter	Mode	95 % Highest Posterior Density Interval	Correlation with
Parameter	Mode	95 % Highest Posterior Density Interval	α _i:o	α _o:d
α _i:o	2.03	1.37 to 2.71
α _o:d	1.03	0.73 to 1.37	0.59
β	0.25	0.18 to 0.34	0.80	0.72

The incubation and detection delay periods are assumed to be Gamma distributed with a common rate parameter such that the interval from sub-clinical infection to diagnosis is also Gamma distributed with shape parameter α _i:o + α _o:d and rate parameter \( \beta \)

ISSN: 1756-3305