Fig. 4

Duration of mass ivermectin treatment in years that is needed to bring mf prevalence below the pOTTIS (red lines and symbols) or to eventually reach local elimination (blue lines and symbols), for ONCHOSIM (left) and EPIONCHO (right) and for annual (top) and biannual treatment (bottom). Dashed lines in each graph connect estimates obtained for different endemicity levels under the assumption that 65 % of the total population is treated per round (coverage). The vertical bars indicate how the duration would change if the coverage was 50 % per round (triangles) or 80 % (circles). To be able to differentiate the prediction intervals obtained for the different endpoints, the results are displayed slightly to the left or right of the actual simulated baseline prevalence (+/− 0.6 %)