Table 1 Overview of assumptions and pre-set parameters

Human birth rate (per 1000 capita, α_H)

21 (Indian crude birth rate in 2011)

[32]

Human mortality rate (μ_H)

Age-dependent (Indian mortality rates in 2011)

[33]

Average duration of late recovered stage (years, 1/ρ_RHC)

2 or 5

Pre-set

Average duration of symptomatic untreated stage (days, 1/ρ_IHS)

30 (fitting) and 45 (predicting)

Unpublished data

Average duration of symptomatic treatment 1 (days, 1/ρ _IHT1)

30 (fitting) and 2.5 (predicting)

[34]

Average duration of symptomatic treatment 2 (days, 1/ρ _IHT2)

30 (fitting) and 10 (predicting)

[35]

Average duration of putatively recovered stage (months, 1/ρ _IHT )

21

[36]

Average duration of PKDL (years, 1/ρ _IHL )

5 (models 1 and 2) and 15 (model 3)

Expert opinion (EH and MB)

Infectiveness of symptomatic untreated cases (p _IHS )

1.0

Reference value

Infectiveness of patients under treatment 1 and 2 (p _IHT1, p _IHT2)

0.5

Expert opinion (EH and MB)

Infectiveness of PKDL cases (p _IHL )

0.5 (models 1 and 2 only; estimated for model 3)

Expert opinion (EH and MB)

Fraction of untreated symptomatic cases that spontaneously, putatively recover (f _p )

0.03

[25]

Excess mortality rate among untreated symptomatic cases (per day, μ_K)

1/150

Assumption

Excess mortality rate among treated symptomatic cases (per day, μ _KT )

1/150 + 1/600 = 1/120 (fitting) and 1/150 (predicting)

[34, 35]

Fraction of failed first-line treatments (f _F )

0.05

[37]

Fraction of putatively recovered cases that develop PKDL (f _L )

0.05 (set such that models 1 and 2 predicted a prevalence of PKDL between 4.4 and 7.8 per 10,000 capita in India)

[10, 38]

Average life expectancy of the sandfly (days, 1/μ _F )

14

[39]

Average duration of incubation period in sandflies (days, 1/ρ _EF )

5

[62]

Sandfly biting rate (per day, β)

1/4

[63]

Transmission probability sandfly to human (p _H )

1.0^b

Reference value