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Fig. 8 | Parasites & Vectors

Fig. 8

From: Refined stratified-worm-burden models that incorporate specific biological features of human and snail hosts provide better estimates of Schistosoma diagnosis, transmission, and control

Fig. 8

Prevalence-intensity and prevalence-FOI curves for observed data compared to SWB ensemble estimates. In panel a, intensity-prevalence curves (P E (λ), M E (λ)) over a range of λ values for posterior biological ensemble {ρ B } are plotted against the twelve Msambweni village data points: SWB ensemble median values (blue curve), their 25–75 % quantiles (dark gray), and 5–95 % quantiles (light gray) are shown. In panel b, FOI-prevalence curves are shown for λ(P E ) (ensemble envelope) along with derived Msambweni data points; these dots show the estimated “ensemble mean” for individual village λ-values vs observed prevalence data for these 12 communities. The red curve shows the associated estimates for function λ, using the older, simpler SWB without correction for host-worm biological factors. An important implication of this discrepancy is that estimates of human FOI and transmission coefficients will be significantly underestimated if the model does not account for in-host biology

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