Fig. 6

Sensitivity analysis: PKD-induced fish loss as a function of model parameters π _B ^*​ vs. π _F ^*​ (a); ρ vs. r (b); d _OC vs. d _CO (c); a vs. h (d); γ vs. ε (e); ψ vs. ζ (f); temperature (g). Simulations are run until convergence (100 seasons), with each season lasting for 200 days. Colors refer to the percentages of the population size at the end of the last season with respect to the same quantity calculated along the disease-free trajectory [computed as in Eqs. (7) and (8)]. For example, 50 % means that at the end of the last season the population size is half of the population that would have survived if the disease were absent. State variables at the beginning of the first season are set as in the model simulation of Fig. 3. Pink dashed lines identify feasible parameter ranges. Black dots refer to the reference parameter set. All rates are represented as mean times. With regards to temperature-dependent parameters, their value at 15 °C is displayed. Black solid lines in g identify levels of mean temperature during the warm season