Table 3 Predicted mean prevalence by matrices A-D for dataset 1 (full Uganda cohort baseline year 0 – year 3)

Matrix

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Observed prevalence dataset 1

0.134(0.111–0.160)

0.099 (0.080–0.123)

0.102 (0.082–0.126)

0.075 (0.058–0.096)

0.021 (0.013–0.035)

0.033

(0.023–0.049)

0.035

(0.024–0.051)

0.016 (0.009–0.028)

0.020 (0.011–0.031)

0.244 (0.214–0.276)

0.137 (0.114–0.163)

0.154 (0.130–0.182)

Matrix A

Full dataset

0.142 (0.123–0.161)

0.108 (0.091–0.126)

0.095^a

(0.077–0.113)

0.075^a (0.062–0.090)

0.044 (0.033 – 0.056)

0.033^a (0.023–0.045)

0.044 (0.033–0.055)

0.023 (0.015–0.032)

0.017^a (0.010–0.026)

0.261 (0.240–0.282)

0.175 (0.151 – 0.200)

0.144^a (0.119–0.171)

Matrix B

Uganda year 1 to year 2

0.135^a (0.112–0.158)

0.105 (0.086–0.126)

0.090 (0.072–0.109)

0.069 (0.051–0.090)

0.039 (0.028 – 0.051)

0.028 (0.019–0.038)

0.048 (0.031–0.066)

0.024 (0.015–0.036)

0.016 (0.009–0.024)

0.252^a (0.225–0.278)

0.168 (0.141 – 0.197)

0.133 (0.108–0.160)

Matrix C

3 selected districts

0.152 (0.122–0.183)

0.096^a (0.071–0.122)

0.082 (0.057–0.108)

0.045 (0.027 – 0.065)

0.016^a (0.008–0.027)

0.009 (0.003 – 0.017)

0.027 (0.013–0.043)

0.011^a (0.003–0.021)

0.008 (0.001 – 0.018)

0.223 (0.193–0.255)

0.123^a (0.093–0.156)

0.099 (0.069 – 0.132)

Matrix D

Mali full dataset

0.165 (0.141 – 0.190)

0.122 (0.100 – 0.146)

0.095^a (0.073– 0.117)

0.081 (0.062–0.101)

0.051 (0.037 – 0.068)

0.035 (0.023–0.049)

0.042^a (0.028–0.057)

0.021^a (0.012–0.032)

0.031 (0.007–0.021)

0.288 (0.264 – 0.312)

0.195 (0.164 – 0.226)

0.143 (0.113–0.175)