Table 4 Predicted mean prevalence by matrices A-C for dataset 2 (selected Ugandan districts)

Matrix

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Observed prevalence dataset 2

0.158

(0.125–0.196)

0.105 (0.079–0.139)

0.143 (0.112–0.180)

0.100 (0.074–0.133)

0.020

(0.010–0.030)

0.045 (0.029–0.070)

0.055 (0.037–0.082)

0.030 (0.017–0.052)

0.018 (0.009–0.036)

0.313 (0.269–0.360)

0.155 (0.123–0.194)

0.205 (0.168–0.247)

Matrix A

Full dataset

0.152^a

(0.133–0.172)

0.112 (0.095–0.130)

0.096 (0.078–0.115)

0.085^a (0.070–0.101)

0.048 (0.036–0.060)

0.034^a (0.024–0.046)

0.051 (0.039–0.063)

0.025 (0.017–0.035)

0.018^a (0.010–0.026)

0.289 (0.268–0.311)

0.185 (0.161–0.211)

0.148 (0.123–0.175)

Matrix B

Uganda year 1 to year 2

0.140 (0.115–0.166)

0.109^a (0.089–0.129)

0.092 (0.074–0.111)

0.078 (0.055–0.102)

0.042 (0.030–0.055)

0.029 (0.020–0.039)

0.055^a (0.035–0.077)

0.027^a (0.016–0.040)

0.017 (0.009–0.026)

0.272 (0.242–0.302)

0.178^a (0.149–0.208)

0.137 (0.111–0.165)

Matrix C

3 selected districts

0.166 (0.132–0.199)

0.099 (0.075–0.124)

0.082

(0.057–0.108)

0.052 (0.031–0.075)

0.018^a (0.009–0.029)

0.010 (0.003–0.018)

0.031 (0.014–0.051)

0.012 (0.003–0.023)

0.008 (0.001–0.018)

0.249 (0.216–0.282)

0.129 (0.098–0.162)

0.100 (0.070–0.132)