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Table 4 Predicted mean prevalence by matrices A-C for dataset 2 (selected Ugandan districts)

From: Development and evaluation of a Markov model to predict changes in schistosomiasis prevalence in response to praziquantel treatment: a case study of Schistosoma mansoni in Uganda and Mali

  Low intensity (predicted mean prevalence and 95 % CI) Moderate intensity (predicted mean prevalence and 95 % CI) High intensity (predicted mean prevalence and 95 % CI) Overall prevalence (predicted mean prevalence and 95 % CI)
Matrix Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Observed prevalence dataset 2 0.158
(0.125–0.196)
0.105 (0.079–0.139) 0.143 (0.112–0.180) 0.100 (0.074–0.133) 0.020
(0.010–0.030)
0.045 (0.029–0.070) 0.055 (0.037–0.082) 0.030 (0.017–0.052) 0.018 (0.009–0.036) 0.313 (0.269–0.360) 0.155 (0.123–0.194) 0.205 (0.168–0.247)
Matrix A
Full dataset
0.152a
(0.133–0.172)
0.112 (0.095–0.130) 0.096 (0.078–0.115) 0.085a (0.070–0.101) 0.048 (0.036–0.060) 0.034a (0.024–0.046) 0.051 (0.039–0.063) 0.025 (0.017–0.035) 0.018a (0.010–0.026) 0.289 (0.268–0.311) 0.185 (0.161–0.211) 0.148 (0.123–0.175)
Matrix B
Uganda year 1 to year 2
0.140 (0.115–0.166) 0.109a (0.089–0.129) 0.092 (0.074–0.111) 0.078 (0.055–0.102) 0.042 (0.030–0.055) 0.029 (0.020–0.039) 0.055a (0.035–0.077) 0.027a (0.016–0.040) 0.017 (0.009–0.026) 0.272 (0.242–0.302) 0.178a (0.149–0.208) 0.137 (0.111–0.165)
Matrix C
3 selected districts
0.166 (0.132–0.199) 0.099 (0.075–0.124) 0.082
(0.057–0.108)
0.052 (0.031–0.075) 0.018a (0.009–0.029) 0.010 (0.003–0.018) 0.031 (0.014–0.051) 0.012 (0.003–0.023) 0.008 (0.001–0.018) 0.249 (0.216–0.282) 0.129 (0.098–0.162) 0.100 (0.070–0.132)
  1. Bold = observed point prevalence values fell outside of the predicted boundaries
  2. a Closest predictions to observed values