Table 5 Predicted mean prevalence by matrices A-C for dataset 3 (cross-sectional Ugandan data)

Matrix

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Observed prevalence dataset 3

0.150

(0.139–0.161)

0.122

(0.112–0.132)

0.104 (0.094–0.115)

0.085

(0.077–0.094)

0.051

(0.044–0.053)

0.061

(0.053–0.070)

0.059

(0.052–0.070)

0.032

(0.028–0.038)

0.054 (0.048–0.062)

0.294 (0.280–0.308)

0.205 (0.193–0.218)

0.219 (0.205–0.233)

Matrix A

Full dataset

0.149^a (0.130–0.168)

0.111^a (0.093–0.128)

0.095^a

(0.078–0.114)

0.082^a (0.068–0.097)

0.047^a (0.035–0.059)

0.034 (0.024 – 0.045)

0.049 (0.037–0.061)

0.024 (0.016–0.034)

0.017 (0.010 – 0.026)

0.280^a (0.259–0.301)

0.182^a (0.157–0.207)

0.147 (0.121 – 0.173)

Matrix B

Uganda year 1 to year 2

0138 (0.114–0.163)

0.108 (0.088–0.128)

0.091

(0.073–0.110)

0.075 (0.053–0.098)

0.041 (0.029–0.054)

0.028

(0.019 – 0.039)

0.052^a (0.033–0.073)

0.026^a (0.016–0.039)

0.017

(0.009 – 0.025)

0.265 (0.235–0.295)

0.174 (0.146–0.205)

0.136

(0.110 – 0.163)

Matrix C

3 selected districts

0.160 (0.128–0.193)

0.098 (0.074–0.123)

0.082

(0.057–0.108)

0.050 (0.029 – 0.072)

0.017 (0.008 – 0.029)

0.009

(0.003 – 0.018)

0.030 (0.014 – 0.049)

0.011 (0.003 – 0.022)

0.008

(0.001 – 0.018)

0.240 (0.208 – 0.273)

0.127 (0.096 – 0.159)

0.100

(0.070 – 0.131)