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Table 1 Model fit and comparison using goodness-of-fit parameters for An. gambiae (s.l.) and An. funestus (s.l.). Model 1 included environmental and climatic variables; random effects (household level and seasonal); intervention use; and spatial and temporal effects. Model 5, the least complex, included only climatic variables and random effects. RMSE and correlation were based on a holdout validation dataset selected randomly (n = 20) out of a total 107 households

From: Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria vector density from baseline through intervention in a high transmission setting

Vector species Model DIC Model complexity Marginal likelihood RMSE Correlation (Observed vs Predicted)
An. gambiae (s.l.) Model 1 11083.56 122.05 -5743.87 1.1059 0.7963
Model 2 11080.09 119.87 -5745.77 1.0565 0.7800
Model 3 11082.78 120.42 -5757.49 1.0516 0.7777
Model 4 11330.18 58.34 -5838.05 1.0883 0.7594
Model 5 11329.69 56.37 -5827.67 1.0884 0.7592
An. funestus (s.l.) Model 1 7188.35 134.51 -3783.64 0.9657 0.6937
Model 2 7221.12 129.62 -3756.08 0.9615 0.6984
Model 3 7194.15 119.54 -3764.33 0.9172 0.6930
Model 4 7385.89 51.22 -3815.50 0.9259 0.6233
Model 5 7385.90 50.89 -3806.26 0.9244 0.6252
  1. Abbreviations: DIC Deviance information criterion, RMSE Root mean square error