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Table 3 Description and goodness-of-fit results of the abundance models for E. multilocularis in foxes in Zurich

From: Mathematical modelling of Echinococcus multilocularis abundance in foxes in Zurich, Switzerland

Model Description P NLL
One zone
  M1 Constant infection pressure 2 1,882.6
  M2 Decrease in infection pressure and fox age 3 1,881.1
  M3 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age 3 1,879.1
  M4 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age 4 1,875.3
  M5 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age and also accounting for parasite-induced immunity 6 1,875.4
Two zones: periurban and suburban (border + urban)
  M6 Constant infection pressure 2 1,856.1
  M7 Decrease in infection pressure and fox age 4 1,852.8
  M8 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age 4 1,849.6
  M9 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age in both zones 6 1,844.3
  M10 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age only in periurban zone 5 1,845.0
  M11 Periodic relationship between infection pressure in both zones and only in the periurban area decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age and parasite-induced immunity 7 1,844.7
  M12 As M10, but μ a was fixed as 8.6 4 1,847.0
  Three zones: periurban, border and urban   
  M13 Constant infection pressure 2 1,844.4
  M14 Decrease in infection pressure and fox age 5 1,840.2
  M15 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age 5 1,837.1
  M16 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age in all three zones 8 1,831.8
  M17 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age only in periurban zone 6 1,832.1
  M18 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus parasite-induced immunity in all three zones 7 1,836.6
  M19 Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age in all zones and only in the periurban area decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age and parasite-induced immunity 8 1,835.1
  M20 As M17, but μ a was fixed as 8.6 5 1,833.4
  1. aParasite death rate (μ)
  2. Abbreviations: P model parameters, NLL negative log-likelihood values