Fig. 3

Fitted model output. In plots a-c we show the output of the model for the Preston location (see Fig. 2). In a the pre-adult cohort ages are plotted over time. The red line indicates the first cohort of the year to develop into adults. In b the smoothed (1 week moving average) total number of adults (nulliparous and parous) as predicted by the model (in red) and the corresponding field data [23] (in black) are plotted. In c the pre-adult development time (blue) and adult gonotrophic cycle length (red) are plotted, where the dashed lines indicate when the adults are not present (vector-free period). In plots d-g the adult abundances from the model output (red) and data (black) at Askham Bryan, Hereford, Newcastle and Starcross, respectively, are shown. All model parameters are given in Additional file 2: Table S2