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Table 3 Posterior estimates of the effect of environmental factors on parasitaemia risk in 2009 and 2014

From: The contribution of malaria control interventions on spatio-temporal changes of parasitaemia risk in Uganda during 2009–2014

Predictor MIS 2009 MIS 2014–2015
OR (95% BCI) OR (95% BCI)
Day LSTb
 < 27.84 / < 31.4 1 1
 27.84–30.18 / 31.4–33.8 1.68 (1.44–2.14)a 2.75 (2.03–3.64)a
 > = 30.19 / > = 33.8 1.41 (1.28–1.76)a 2.19 (1.79–3.39)a
Night LST 1.55 (1.39–1.67)a 1.44 (1.19–1.60)a
Area type
 Rural vs urban 7.80 (4.88–11.09)a 3.70 (2.56–4.88)a
NDVI 1.25 (1.10–1.51)a  
Rainfallb
 < 17.11 / < 17.14 1  
 17.11–18.49 / 17.14–18.79 1.13 (0.93–1.23)  
 > = 18.50 / > = 18.79 1.39 (1.12–1.49)a  
Altitudeb
 < 1098 1  
 1098–1201 0.89 (0.81–0.95)a  
 > = 1202 0.43 (0.38–0.47)a  
Land cover
 Others   1
 Crops 1.19 (1.13–1.43)a
Spatial parameters
 Spatial variance 1.12 (0.99–1.20) 0.54 (0.49–0.59)
 Range (km) 43.3 (12.2–57.8) 43.8 (36.3–48.2)
  1. Abbreviations: MIS Malaria Indicator Survey, LST Land Surface Temperature, NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
  2. aStatistically important effect
  3. bCut-offs before and after the slash (/) are for 2009 and 2014 respectively