Latent class models for Echinococcus multilocularis diagnosis in foxes in Switzerland in the absence of a gold standard

Table 2 Parameters estimates (posterior means) with their corresponding 95% credibility intervals and the model goodness-of-fit to the data of the best model for three tests with and without covariates

	Model	Model with “age”	Model with “cestodes”	Model with “sex”
SCT
Se1	0.919 (0.857 to 0.961)	0.91 (0.843 to 0.950)	0.905 (0.834 to 0.958)	0.909 (0.840 to 0.958)
Sp1	1^a	1^a	1^a	1^a
Egg-PCR
Se2	0.543 (0.474 to 0.610)	0.539 (0.470 to 0.608)	0.533 (0.465 to 0.602)	0.539 (0.470 to 0.608)
Sp2	0.919 (0.850 to 0.982)	0.917 (0.848 to 0.980)	0.914 (0.843 to 0.977)	0.920 (0.848 to 0.984)
pAb-ELISA
Se3	0.556 (0.475 to 0.637)	0.553 (0.472 to 0.634)	0.543 (0.461 to 0.626)	0.552 (0.470 to 0.633)
Sp3	0.641 (0.540 to 0.732)	0.638 (0.533 to 0.735)	0.624 (0.512 to 0.723)	0.636 (0.528 to 0.734)
Prevalence	0.584 (0.526 to 0.645)	na	na	na
Cov = 1^b	na	0.682 (0.577 to 0.783)	0.480 (0.379 to 0.589)	0.587 (0.487 to 0.691)
Cov = 0^b	na	0.546 (0.305 to 0.775)	0.686 (0.456 to 0.856)	0.613 (0.387 to 0.807)
Intercept	na	0.76 (0.31 to 1.28)	−0.08 (−0.49 to 0.36)	0.35 (−0.05 to 0.80)
Slope (OR)^c	na	0.56 (0.32 to 0.96)	2.36 (1.37 to 4.16)	1.12 (0.67 to 1.87)
DIC	1129.2	1126.7	1120.4	1130.9

^aSpecificity of necropsy fixed to 1
^bPrevalence for respective covariate = 1 (adult, with other cestodes and male) and covariate = 0 (young, without other cestodes and female)
^cOdds ratio
Abbreviations: Se sensitivity, Sp specificity, Egg-PCR polymerase chain reaction, pAb-ELISA polyclonal enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cut-off determined by considering necropsy and SCT as the gold-standard test), DIC deviance information criterion, na not applicable