Table 3 Regression coefficients, RRs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models for cystic echinococcosis in NHAR from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2013

α (Intercept)

-0.38 (− 0.01– -0.38)

–

-0.40 (-0.56– -0.25)

–

-0.67 (-0.78– -0.60)

1. Annual mean temperature (°C) lag-13 years

0.04 (4.55 × 10^-4–0.04)

1.04 (1.00–1.04)

0.04 (-0.03–0.11)

1.04 (0.97–1.12)

–

2. Annual mean temperature² (°C) lag-13 years

-0.05 (-0.05–1.56 × 10^-4)

0.95 (0.95–1.00)

-0.05 (-0.08– -0.02)

0.95 (0.92–0.98)

–

3. Winter mean temperature (°C) lag-10 years

0.14 (1.93 × 10^-4–0.14)

1.15 (1.00–1.15)

0.14 (0.10–0.18)

1.15 (1.11–1.19)

–

4. Herbaceous vegetation lag-13 years

-0.01 (-0.01–7.08 × 10^-5)

0.99 (0.99–1.00)

-0.01 (-0.01–2.86 × 10^-4)

0.99 (0.98–1.00)

–

5. Bareland/artificial surfaces (%) MA5

0.01 (6.21 × 10^-5–0.01)

1.01(1.00–1.01)

4.89 × 10^-3 (-1.31 × 10^-3–0.01)

1.00 (0.99–1.01)

–

6. Cultivated land (%) MA5

2.79 × 10^-3 (5.02 × 10^-5–2.79 × 10^-3)

1.01 (1.00–1.01)

2.83 × 10^-3 (-2.38 × 10^-3–8.08 × 10^-3)

1.00 (0.99–1.01)

–

7. Forest (%) MA5

4.09 × 10^-4 (5.26 × 10^-5–4.4 × 10^-4)

1.01 (1.00–1.01)

5.52 × 10^-3 (-3.93 × 10^-3–0.01)

1.00 (0.99–.01)

–

8. Shrubland (%) MA5

-0.02 (-0.02–9.85 × 10^-5)

0.98 (0.98–1.00)

-0.02 (-0.05–0.01)

0.98 (0.95–1.01)

–

9. Water bodies (%) MA6

-1.84 × 10^-3 (-1.81 × 10^-3–2.72 × 10^-5)

0.99 (0.99–1.00)

-2.06 × 10^-3 (-0.01–4.71 × 10^-3)

0.99 (0.99–1.00)

–

10. Annual mean temperature (°C) MA2

-0.01 (-0.01–8.81 × 10^-5)

0.99 (0.99–1.00)

-0.01 (-0.02–8.15 × 10^-3)

0.99 (0.98–1.01)

–

11. Annual minimum precipitation (mm) MA4

-0.07 (-0.07–5.3 × 10^-4)

0.93 (0.93–1.00)

-0.06 (-0.15–0.03)

0.94 (0.86–1.03)

–

12. Time (year)

-0.02 (-0.02–1.13 × 10^-4)

0.98 (0.98–1.00)

-0.02 (-0.03– -0.01)

0.97 (0.96–0.98)

–

Heterogeneity unstructured

2.77 (2.79–2694.70)

–

–

–

–

Heterogeneity structured

–

–

8.98 (7.14–11.11)

–

9.14 (7.37–11.59)

DIC

9610

–

9396

–

9529