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Table 3 Regression coefficients, RRs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models for cystic echinococcosis in NHAR from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2013

From: Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

  Model I Model II Model II
Variable Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI) RRs, posterior mean (95% CrI) Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI) RRs, posterior mean (95% CrI) Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI)
α (Intercept) -0.38 (− 0.01– -0.38) -0.40 (-0.56– -0.25) -0.67 (-0.78– -0.60)
1. Annual mean temperature (°C) lag-13 years 0.04 (4.55 × 10-4–0.04) 1.04 (1.00–1.04) 0.04 (-0.03–0.11) 1.04 (0.97–1.12)
2. Annual mean temperature2 (°C) lag-13 years -0.05 (-0.05–1.56 × 10-4) 0.95 (0.95–1.00) -0.05 (-0.08– -0.02) 0.95 (0.92–0.98)
3. Winter mean temperature (°C) lag-10 years 0.14 (1.93 × 10-4–0.14) 1.15 (1.00–1.15) 0.14 (0.10–0.18) 1.15 (1.11–1.19)
4. Herbaceous vegetation lag-13 years -0.01 (-0.01–7.08 × 10-5) 0.99 (0.99–1.00) -0.01 (-0.01–2.86 × 10-4) 0.99 (0.98–1.00)
5. Bareland/artificial surfaces (%) MA5 0.01 (6.21 × 10-5–0.01) 1.01(1.00–1.01) 4.89 × 10-3 (-1.31 × 10-3–0.01) 1.00 (0.99–1.01)
6. Cultivated land (%) MA5 2.79 × 10-3 (5.02 × 10-5–2.79 × 10-3) 1.01 (1.00–1.01) 2.83 × 10-3 (-2.38 × 10-3–8.08 × 10-3) 1.00 (0.99–1.01)
7. Forest (%) MA5 4.09 × 10-4 (5.26 × 10-5–4.4 × 10-4) 1.01 (1.00–1.01) 5.52 × 10-3 (-3.93 × 10-3–0.01) 1.00 (0.99–.01)
8. Shrubland (%) MA5 -0.02 (-0.02–9.85 × 10-5) 0.98 (0.98–1.00) -0.02 (-0.05–0.01) 0.98 (0.95–1.01)
9. Water bodies (%) MA6 -1.84 × 10-3 (-1.81 × 10-3–2.72 × 10-5) 0.99 (0.99–1.00) -2.06 × 10-3 (-0.01–4.71 × 10-3) 0.99 (0.99–1.00)
10. Annual mean temperature (°C) MA2 -0.01 (-0.01–8.81 × 10-5) 0.99 (0.99–1.00) -0.01 (-0.02–8.15 × 10-3) 0.99 (0.98–1.01)
11. Annual minimum precipitation (mm) MA4 -0.07 (-0.07–5.3 × 10-4) 0.93 (0.93–1.00) -0.06 (-0.15–0.03) 0.94 (0.86–1.03)
12. Time (year) -0.02 (-0.02–1.13 × 10-4) 0.98 (0.98–1.00) -0.02 (-0.03– -0.01) 0.97 (0.96–0.98)
Heterogeneity unstructured 2.77 (2.79–2694.70)
Heterogeneity structured 8.98 (7.14–11.11) 9.14 (7.37–11.59)
DIC 9610 9396 9529
  1. Abbreviations: RRs relative risks, 95% CrI 95% credible interval