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Table 2 Outcomes from simulation modelling and economic analysis for the current situation and different scenarios simulated

From: Risk-based inspection as a cost-effective strategy to reduce human exposure to cysticerci of Taenia saginata in low-prevalence settings

Outcomes Baseline
All animals undergo current inspection
Scenario A
HRF&HRA: Enhanced
LRF&HRA: Normal
HRF&LRA: Enhanced
LR: no inspection
Scenario B
HRF&HRA: Enhanced
LRF&HRA: Normal
HRF&LRA: Normal
LR: Normal
Scenario C
HRF&HRA: Enhanced
LRF&HRA: Normal
HRF&LRA: Enhanced
LR: Normal
Scenario D
Enhanced inspection in all animals
Total number of infected carcasses 2354 (1645–4247) 2354 (1645–4247) 2354 (1645–4247) 2354 (1645–4247) 2354 (1645–4247)
Number of infected carcasses detected 348 (336–360) 438 (338–668) 445 (352–656) 454 (353–690) 583 (361–1091)
Percent of infected carcasses detected 15 (8–21) 19 (14–23) 19 (14–24) 19 (15–24) 25 (18–31)
Number of inspections needed to find one infected carcass 7183 (6944–7440) 4630 (3050–5997) 5605 (3822–7082) 5494 (3665–7082) 4288 (2302–6887)
Number of normal inspections 2,500,000 1,657,096 2,206,747 2,123,729 0
Number of enhanced inspections 375,768 293,253 376,271 2,500,000
Number of animals not inspected 0 467,136 0 0 0
Total costs in million (£) 8.53 (8.52–8.54) 7.08 (7.02–7.24) 8.63 (8.57–8.77) 8.64 (8.58–8.79) 8.99 (8.84–9.33)
X = Cost of scenario – Cost of baseline -1.44 (-1.51– -1.29) 0.10 (0.04–0.23) 0.11 (0.06–0.25) 0.46 (0.32–0.79)
Y = Outcome of scenario – Outcome of baseline 92 (2–319) 98 (6–307) 107 (16–334) 237 (25–743)
ICER = X/Y (in million £ per carcass detected) -0.013 (-0.093– -0.069) 0.001 (0.0007–0.003) 0.001 (0.0007–0.003) 0.002 (0.0009–0.008)
  1. Abbreviations: HRF/LRF, animals with/without a history of high-risk farms in their movement respectively; HRA/LRA, animals belonging/not belonging to high risk age-sex category, respectively; LR, low risk animals
  2. Baseline represents current situation. Median values and 95% confidence intervals of the outcomes are presentedBaseline represents current situation. Median values and 95% confidence intervals of the outcomes are presented