Model variables | Temporal scale | Municipal-level observations at temporal scale for n weeks of the outcome variable given model type and data structure defined in Table 2 | Hypothesized effect | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Environmental | Mean study period temperature, Ts (°C) | Study period | Ts, Ts, Ts, …Ts | Vector habitat suitability |
Mean weekly daytime temperature, Td (°C) | Weekly | Td 1 , Td 2 , Td 3 , …Td n | Vector reproductive and survival rates; Viral extrinsic incubation period (EIP) | |
Mean weekly nighttime temperature, Tn (°C) | Weekly | Tn 1 , Tn 2 , Tn 3 , …Tn n | Vector reproductive and survival rates; Viral generation time | |
Total study period precipitation (mm), Ps | Study period | Ps, Ps, Ps, …Ps | Vector habitat suitability | |
Total weekly precipitation (mm), Pw | Weekly | Pw 1 , Pw 2 , Pw 3 , …Pw n | Vector reproductive rate | |
Mean Elevation (m), E | Study period | E, E, E, …E | Vector reproductive and survival rates; EIP | |
Mean vector environmental suitability, V | Study period | V, V, V, …V | Vector habitat suitability; Vector reproductive and survival rates; EIP; Human exposure in urban versus rural areas | |
Social | Population density per km2, D | Study period | D, D, D, …D | Detection (higher population linked to more case investigations) |
Unsatisfied Basic Needs (% population), U | Study period | U, U, U, …U | Exposure related to housing quality; Access to health centres | |
Inter-municipal road connectivity, Rc | Study period | Rc, Rc, Rc, …Rc | Local movement of people to spread ZIKV | |
Road density per km2, Rd | Study period | Rd, Rd, Rd, …Rd | Local movement of people to spread ZIKV | |
Neighbourhood disease intensity | Nearest infected municipality (km), Nn | Weekly | Nn 1 , Nn 2 , Nn 3 , …Nn n | Controls for areas with autochthonous ZIKV transmission |
Proportion of neighbouring municipalities reporting ZIKV, Np | Weekly | Np 1 , Np 2 , Np 3 , …Np n | Controls for areas with autochthonous ZIKV transmission |