Table 1 Parameter definitions and prior probability distributions for each

q _i

Movement rate

gamma

shape = 1.5; mean = 0.02; rate = shape / mean

[10]

Assuming symmetry

p ₁

Proportion of movement away from SR

beta

mean = 0.5; shape1 = 4; shape2 = shape1 / (mean-shape1)

–

–

r

Proportion of movement directed outdoors

beta

mean = 0.25; shape1 = 1.25; shape2 = shape1 / (mean-shape1)

[10]

Assuming symmetry

k

Knockdown rate

uniform

min = 1 h^-1; max = 16 days^-1

[10, 19]

Assuming symmetry

u

Loss to follow-up rate

uniform

min = 30 min^-1 ; max = 100 days^-1

–

Assumed the same between huts