Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 1 Centroid shift, shift direction, conserved area, lost area and gained area in the Mediterranean basin for the different studied phlebotomine species for the three reference years (2020, 2050 and 2080) under the pessimistic scenario A2a and the optimistic scenario B2a

From: Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change

  Centroid shift (km)a Shift direction (°) Conserved area (%) Lost area (%)b Gained area (%)
2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080
Scenario A2a
P. papatasi 292 595 948 17 14 359 84.1 72.5 49.3 -16.0 -27.5 -50.7 21.8 45.2 63.6
P. alexandri 341 483 484 232 231 231 90.5 87.0 86.1 -9.5 -13.0 -13.9 4.9 9.1 12.8
P. ariasi 408 1019 1279 67 71 75 83.4 71.2 62.5 -16.7 -28.8 -37.6 29.7 69.4 90.5
P. sergenti 88 290 255 211 235 211 75.3 56.8 41.3 -14.7 -43.2 -58.7 35.2 51.8 68.1
Scenario B2a
P. papatasi 298 460 728 358 5 13 83.8 77.1 67.9 -16.3 -22.9 -32.1 24.5 32.9 47.1
P. alexandri 304 401 533 233 233 233 91.4 88.8 85.8 -8.6 -11.2 -14.2 5.8 7.4 10.1
P. ariasi 298 524 1150 69 70 71 82.0 76.6 71.3 -18.1 23.4 -28.7 26.8 37.5 80.3
P. sergenti 67 15 155 184 152 233 74.4 67.5 58.6 -25.6 -32.5 -41.4 25.6 50.3 57.8
  1. aThe centroid shift is the geodesic distance between the centroids of the present and the potential future specie ranges, the shift direction is the angle between North (0°) and the geodesic path between the present and the potential future centroids
  2. bThe lost area is the percentage of area lost by the species in comparison to the current species range and the gained area is the percentage of area gained by the species in comparison to the current species range