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Table 1 Risk factors selected for simple and multiple logistic models for the prediction of dengue local transmission introduction probability. Model M1 (bold) was selected based on the result of AIC and residual deviance

From: Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

Model Variable Time lag (weeks) AIC Residual deviance Odds 95% CI P-value
Null 1 0 261.83 259.83  
Simple Dengue imported 3 177.88 173.88 2.98 2.21–4.19 <0.001
Simple Mosquito IMFA 3 190.94 186.94 22.82 10.01–57.86 <0.001
Simple Tweets 3 191.32 187.32 1.04 1.03–1.05 <0.001
Simple Minimum temperature 4 231.22 227.22 1.26 1.15–1.38 <0.001
Simple DENV in mosquitoes 3 252.09 248.09 1.82 1.25–2.89 <0.01
Simple Maximum temperature 0 260.18 256.18 1.06 1.00–1.13  
Simple Mean temperature 0 260.15 256.15 1.07 1.00–1.15  
Simple Humidity 0 263.82 259.82 1.00 0.95–1.05  
Simple Rain 0 263.82 259.82 1.00 0.94–1.06  
M1 multiple Dengue imported (lag 3) 3 149.33 141.33 1.64 1.17–2.42 <0.01
Tweets (lag 3) 1.02 1.01–1.03 <0.01
Mosquito IMFA (lag 3) 7.61 2.87–21.74 <0.001
Multiple Dengue imported (lag 3) 3 151.00 141.00 1.62 1.16–2.39 <0.01
DENV in mosquitoes (lag 3) 1.17 0.68–2.08  
Tweets (lag 3) 1.02 1.01–1.03 <0.001
Mosquito IMFA (lag 3) 7.51 2.83–21.48 <0.001
Multiple Dengue imported (lag 3) 3 151.14 141.14 1.65 1.17–2.44 <0.001
Tweets (lag 3) 1.02 1.01–1.04 <0.01
Mosquito IMFA (lag 3) 6.45 1.68–27.07 <0.01
Minimum temperature (lag 4) 1.03 0.88–1.20  
Multiple Dengue imported (lag 3) 3 152.84 140.84 1.63 1.16–2.41 <0.01
DENV in mosquitoes (lag 3) 1.17 0.68–2.07  
Tweets (lag 3) 1.02 1.01–1.03 <0.01
Mosquito IMFA (lag 3) 6.47 1.69–27.09 <0.01
Minimum temperature (lag 4) 1.02 0.88–1.20  
Multiple Tweets (lag 3) 3 156.59 148.59 1.02 1.01–1.04 <0.001
Dengue imported (lag 3) 1.98 1.41–2.87 <0.001
Minimum temperature (lag 4) 1.19 1.06–1.35 <0.01
Multiple Tweets (lag 3) 3 156.93 150.93 1.03 1.02–1.04 <0.001
Mosquito IMFA (lag 3) 13.46 5.50–36.37 <0.001
  1. Notes: Data indicate the influence of each variable studied in the response variable: 1 or more dengue confirmed local cases (local transmission of dengue introduction). Each variable was evaluated at 5 different time points of forecast (lag zero to four). The logistic model was performed for each unique variable. The odds column indicates how each variable affect the chance of dengue local transmission to occur. Orange marked variables were selected for further analyses
  2. Abbreviations: AIC Akaike information criterion, CI confidence interval, IMFA mean infestation of female Aedes aegypti, DENV dengue virus