Table 1 Risk factors selected for simple and multiple logistic models for the prediction of dengue local transmission introduction probability. Model M1 (bold) was selected based on the result of AIC and residual deviance

Null

1

0

261.83

259.83

–

–

Simple

Dengue imported

3

177.88

173.88

2.98

2.21–4.19

<0.001

Simple

Mosquito IMFA

3

190.94

186.94

22.82

10.01–57.86

<0.001

Simple

Tweets

3

191.32

187.32

1.04

1.03–1.05

<0.001

Simple

Minimum temperature

4

231.22

227.22

1.26

1.15–1.38

<0.001

Simple

DENV in mosquitoes

3

252.09

248.09

1.82

1.25–2.89

<0.01

Simple

Maximum temperature

0

260.18

256.18

1.06

1.00–1.13

Simple

Mean temperature

0

260.15

256.15

1.07

1.00–1.15

Simple

Humidity

0

263.82

259.82

1.00

0.95–1.05

Simple

Rain

0

263.82

259.82

1.00

0.94–1.06

M1 multiple

Dengue imported (lag 3)

3

149.33

141.33

1.64

1.17–2.42

<0.01

Tweets (lag 3)

1.02

1.01–1.03

<0.01

Mosquito IMFA (lag 3)

7.61

2.87–21.74

<0.001

Multiple

Dengue imported (lag 3)

3

151.00

141.00

1.62

1.16–2.39

<0.01

DENV in mosquitoes (lag 3)

1.17

0.68–2.08

Tweets (lag 3)

1.02

1.01–1.03

<0.001

Mosquito IMFA (lag 3)

7.51

2.83–21.48

<0.001

Multiple

Dengue imported (lag 3)

3

151.14

141.14

1.65

1.17–2.44

<0.001

Tweets (lag 3)

1.02

1.01–1.04

<0.01

Mosquito IMFA (lag 3)

6.45

1.68–27.07

<0.01

Minimum temperature (lag 4)

1.03

0.88–1.20

Multiple

Dengue imported (lag 3)

3

152.84

140.84

1.63

1.16–2.41

<0.01

DENV in mosquitoes (lag 3)

1.17

0.68–2.07

Tweets (lag 3)

1.02

1.01–1.03

<0.01

Mosquito IMFA (lag 3)

6.47

1.69–27.09

<0.01

Minimum temperature (lag 4)

1.02

0.88–1.20

Multiple

Tweets (lag 3)

3

156.59

148.59

1.02

1.01–1.04

<0.001

Dengue imported (lag 3)

1.98

1.41–2.87

<0.001

Minimum temperature (lag 4)

1.19

1.06–1.35

<0.01

Multiple

Tweets (lag 3)

3

156.93

150.93

1.03

1.02–1.04

<0.001

Mosquito IMFA (lag 3)

13.46

5.50–36.37

<0.001