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Table 2 Risk factors selected for simple and multiple logistic models for the prediction of dengue local transmission propagation probability. Model M2 (bold) was selected based on the result of AIC and residual deviance

From: Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

Model Variable Time lag (weeks) AIC Residual deviance Odds 95% CI P- value
Null 1 0 173.4 171.4 0.13 0.08–0.19 <0.001
Simple Dengue imported 4 113.27 109.27 2.42 1.84–3.32 <0.001
Simple Tweets 4 117.74 113.74 1.03 1.02–1.04 <0.001
Simple Mosquito IMFA 4 137.8 133.80 13.30 5.50–35.78 <0.001
Simple Maximum temperature 4 151.3 147.30 1.26 1.13–1.41 <0.001
Simple DENV in mosquitoes 4 164.65 160.65 1.83 1.26–2.76 <0.01
Simple Mean temperature 0 169.36 173.36 1.06 0.97–1.17  
Simple Minimum temperature 0 172.77 168.77 1.08 0.98–1.19  
Simple Humidity 0 175.37 171.37 1.00 0.94–1.07  
Simple Rain 0 175.30 171.30 1.01 0.93–1.09  
M2 Multiple Dengue imported 4 67.19 55.19 5.93 2.68–17.70 <0.001
Tweets 1.06 1.04–1.10 <0.001
DENV in mosquitoes 1.92 1.04–4.24  
Maximum temperature 1.76 1.35–2.56 <0.001
Dengue imported:Tweets 0.99 0.98–0.99 <0.01
Multiple Dengue imported 4 69.16 55.16 5.79 2.50–17.76 <0.001
Tweets 1.06 1.04–1.10 <0.001
Mosquito IMFA 1.17 0.20–6.28  
DENV in mosquitoes 1.93 1.05–4.27  
Maximum temperature 1.75 1.34–2.56 <0.001
Dengue imported:Tweets 0.99 0.98–0.99 <0.01
Multiple Dengue imported 4 78.57 68.57 1.92 1.34–3.06 <0.01
DENV in mosquitoes 1.68 0.98–3.07  
Tweets 1.03 1.01–1.05 <0.001
Maximum temperature 1.58 1.28–2.07 <0.001
Multiple Dengue imported 4 79.57 67.57 1.78 1.24–2.88 <0.01
Mosquito IMFA 2.16 0.46–9.88  
DENV in mosquitoes 1.69 0.98–3.14  
Tweets 1.03 1.02–1.05 <0.001
Maximum temperature 1.54 1.24–2.03 <0.001
Multiple Dengue imported 4 80.13 72.13 1.95 1.35–3.08 <0.01
Tweets 1.03 1.02–1.05 <0.001
Maximum temperature 1.52 1.25–1.94 <0.01
Multiple Tweets 4 94.79 88.79 1.04 1.03–1.06 <0.001
Maximum temperature 1.47 1.25–1.80 <0.001
Multiple Dengue imported 4 97.08 89.09 1.50 1.15–2.10 <0.01
Tweets 1.02 1.01–1.03 <0.001
Mosquito IMFA 5.47 1.65–19.57 <0.01
  1. Notes: Data indicate the influence of each variable studied in the response variable: 5 or more dengue confirmed local cases (local transmission of dengue propagation). Each variable was evaluated at 5 different time points of forecast (lag zero to four). The logistic model was performed for each unique variable. The odds column indicates how each variable affect the chance of dengue local transmission to occur
  2. Abbreviations: AIC Akaike information criterion, CI confidence interval, IMFA mean infestation of female Aedes aegypti, DENV dengue virus