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Table 2 Risk factors selected for simple and multiple logistic models for the prediction of dengue local transmission propagation probability. Model M2 (bold) was selected based on the result of AIC and residual deviance

From: Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

Model

Variable

Time lag (weeks)

AIC

Residual deviance

Odds

95% CI

P- value

Null

1

0

173.4

171.4

0.13

0.08–0.19

<0.001

Simple

Dengue imported

4

113.27

109.27

2.42

1.84–3.32

<0.001

Simple

Tweets

4

117.74

113.74

1.03

1.02–1.04

<0.001

Simple

Mosquito IMFA

4

137.8

133.80

13.30

5.50–35.78

<0.001

Simple

Maximum temperature

4

151.3

147.30

1.26

1.13–1.41

<0.001

Simple

DENV in mosquitoes

4

164.65

160.65

1.83

1.26–2.76

<0.01

Simple

Mean temperature

0

169.36

173.36

1.06

0.97–1.17

 

Simple

Minimum temperature

0

172.77

168.77

1.08

0.98–1.19

 

Simple

Humidity

0

175.37

171.37

1.00

0.94–1.07

 

Simple

Rain

0

175.30

171.30

1.01

0.93–1.09

 

M2 Multiple

Dengue imported

4

67.19

55.19

5.93

2.68–17.70

<0.001

Tweets

1.06

1.04–1.10

<0.001

DENV in mosquitoes

1.92

1.04–4.24

 

Maximum temperature

1.76

1.35–2.56

<0.001

Dengue imported:Tweets

0.99

0.98–0.99

<0.01

Multiple

Dengue imported

4

69.16

55.16

5.79

2.50–17.76

<0.001

Tweets

1.06

1.04–1.10

<0.001

Mosquito IMFA

1.17

0.20–6.28

 

DENV in mosquitoes

1.93

1.05–4.27

 

Maximum temperature

1.75

1.34–2.56

<0.001

Dengue imported:Tweets

0.99

0.98–0.99

<0.01

Multiple

Dengue imported

4

78.57

68.57

1.92

1.34–3.06

<0.01

DENV in mosquitoes

1.68

0.98–3.07

 

Tweets

1.03

1.01–1.05

<0.001

Maximum temperature

1.58

1.28–2.07

<0.001

Multiple

Dengue imported

4

79.57

67.57

1.78

1.24–2.88

<0.01

Mosquito IMFA

2.16

0.46–9.88

 

DENV in mosquitoes

1.69

0.98–3.14

 

Tweets

1.03

1.02–1.05

<0.001

Maximum temperature

1.54

1.24–2.03

<0.001

Multiple

Dengue imported

4

80.13

72.13

1.95

1.35–3.08

<0.01

Tweets

1.03

1.02–1.05

<0.001

Maximum temperature

1.52

1.25–1.94

<0.01

Multiple

Tweets

4

94.79

88.79

1.04

1.03–1.06

<0.001

Maximum temperature

1.47

1.25–1.80

<0.001

Multiple

Dengue imported

4

97.08

89.09

1.50

1.15–2.10

<0.01

Tweets

1.02

1.01–1.03

<0.001

Mosquito IMFA

5.47

1.65–19.57

<0.01

  1. Notes: Data indicate the influence of each variable studied in the response variable: 5 or more dengue confirmed local cases (local transmission of dengue propagation). Each variable was evaluated at 5 different time points of forecast (lag zero to four). The logistic model was performed for each unique variable. The odds column indicates how each variable affect the chance of dengue local transmission to occur
  2. Abbreviations: AIC Akaike information criterion, CI confidence interval, IMFA mean infestation of female Aedes aegypti, DENV dengue virus