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Table 3 Validation and decision model for the risk of dengue local transmission introduction (M1) and propagation (M2). Both models were divided into three risk levels (low, moderate and high) for the decision making based on these probabilities

From: Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

Model Variable Time lag (weeks) AUC Probability cut-point Accuracy (%) Sensitivity TPR (%) Specificity TNR (%) Risk decision model
M1: Local transmission initiation Dengue imported 3 0.92      < 0.20 Green Low
Tweets 0.20 85.22 82.46 86.13 0.20 ≤ x < 0.60 Yellow Moderate
Mosquito IMFA 0.60 87.39 61.40 95.95 ≥ 0.60 Orange High
M2: Disease propagation Dengue imported 4 0.98      < 0.20 Green Low
DENV in mosquitoes 0.20 92.61 92.86 92.57 0.20 ≤ x < 0.50 Orange Moderate
Tweets 0.50 94.78 75.00 97.52 ≥ 0.50 Red High
Maximum temperature        
  1. Abbreviations: AUC area under the curve, TNR true negative rate, TPR true positive rate, IMFA mean infestation of female Aedes aegypti, DENV dengue virus