Table 3 Validation and decision model for the risk of dengue local transmission introduction (M1) and propagation (M2). Both models were divided into three risk levels (low, moderate and high) for the decision making based on these probabilities
Model | Variable | Time lag (weeks) | AUC | Probability cut-point | Accuracy (%) | Sensitivity TPR (%) | Specificity TNR (%) | Risk decision model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M1: Local transmission initiation | Dengue imported | 3 | 0.92 | < 0.20 | Green | Low | ||||
Tweets | 0.20 | 85.22 | 82.46 | 86.13 | 0.20 ≤ x < 0.60 | Yellow | Moderate | |||
Mosquito IMFA | 0.60 | 87.39 | 61.40 | 95.95 | ≥ 0.60 | Orange | High | |||
M2: Disease propagation | Dengue imported | 4 | 0.98 | < 0.20 | Green | Low | ||||
DENV in mosquitoes | 0.20 | 92.61 | 92.86 | 92.57 | 0.20 ≤ x < 0.50 | Orange | Moderate | |||
Tweets | 0.50 | 94.78 | 75.00 | 97.52 | ≥ 0.50 | Red | High | |||
Maximum temperature | ||||||||||