Table 1 Summary of climate change scenarios on Ctenocephalides felis in Australia
Scenario | Current area lost (km2) | Area of expansion from current area (km2) | % change in area | Area common to current (km2) | % current distribution retained | Distance to current centroid (km) | Rate of habitat change (km/decade) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2050: All | RCP2.6 | 301,018.50 | 22,108.26 | 29.08 | 658,022.32 | 68.61 | 242.25 | 75.70 |
RCP4.5 | 381,786.81 | 17,326.07 | 38.00 | 577,255.01 | 60.19 | 271.92 | 84.98 | |
RCP6.0 | 331,719.37 | 33,929.15 | 31.05 | 627,322.45 | 65.41 | 338.55 | 105.80 | |
RCP8.5 | 436,877.55 | 26,587.09 | 42.78 | 522,164.27 | 54.45 | 397.14 | 124.11 | |
2050: Clade ‘Sydney’ | RCP2.6 | 339,388.78 | 21,636.39 | 29.70 | 730,538.19 | 68.28 | 215.18 | 67.24 |
RCP4.5 | 439,006.97 | 11,379.71 | 39.97 | 630,919.96 | 65.79 | 264.77 | 82.74 | |
RCP6.0 | 383,161.11 | 26,691.03 | 33.32 | 686,765.86 | 71.61 | 295.67 | 92.40 | |
RCP8.5 | 501,527.03 | 21,790.32 | 44.84 | 568,399.94 | 59.27 | 391.65 | 122.39 | |
2050: Clade ‘Darwin’ | RCP2.6 | 55,972.30 | 24,097.10 | 18.77 | 113,808.92 | 67.03 | 93.97 | 29.37 |
RCP4.5 | 29,695.90 | 45,457.57 | 9.28 | 140,085.23 | 82.93 | 157.61 | 49.25 | |
RCP6.0 | 63,586.33 | 17,515.69 | 27.14 | 106,194.89 | 62.55 | 56.51 | 17.70 | |
RCP8.5 | 40,364.56 | 51,701.02 | 6.68 | 129,416.66 | 76.23 | 128.77 | 40.24 | |
2050: Clade ‘Cairns’ | RCP2.6 | 47,923.57 | 16,947.30 | 31.07 | 51,779.46 | 51.93 | 206.82 | 64.50 |
RCP4.5 | 28,949.99 | 34,684.10 | 5.75 | 70,753.04 | 70.96 | 252.40 | 78.88 | |
RCP6.0 | 49,881.97 | 17,574.75 | 32.40 | 49,820.06 | 49.97 | 132.11 | 41.28 | |
RCP8.5 | 49,642.17 | 29,042.64 | 20.66 | 50,060.86 | 50,21 | 312.68 | 97.71 | |
2070: All | RCP2.6 | 280,744.69 | 38,814.52 | 25.23 | 678,297.13 | 70.72 | 232.17 | 44.65 |
RCP4.5 | 426,441.54 | 18,276.39 | 42.56 | 532,600.28 | 55.53 | 343.84 | 66.12 | |
RCP6.0 | 478,536.97 | 15,717.72 | 48.26 | 480,504.85 | 50.10 | 353.93 | 68.06 | |
RCP8.5 | 589,158.53 | 16,349.90 | 59.73 | 369,883.29 | 38.57 | 524.61 | 100.89 | |
2070: Clade ‘Sydney’ | RCP2.6 | 318,234.54 | 36,549.23 | 26.33 | 751,692.43 | 70.26 | 218.69 | 42.06 |
RCP4.5 | 495,955.62 | 12,628.19 | 45.17 | 573,971.35 | 53.65 | 332.05 | 63.86 | |
RCP6.0 | 526,910.57 | 10,408.90 | 48.27 | 507,016.40 | 47.39 | 347.37 | 71.99 | |
RCP8.5 | 672,242.71 | 9979.55 | 61.90 | 297,684.26 | 27.82 | 521.00 | 100.19 | |
2070: Clade ‘Darwin’ | RCP2.6 | 30,060.54 | 70,319.91 | 23.71 | 139,720.68 | 82.30 | 132.10 | 25.40 |
RCP4.5 | 52,684.02 | 24,798.35 | 16.42 | 117,097.20 | 68.70 | 131.59 | 25.31 | |
RCP6.0 | 50,754.84 | 41,335.67 | 55.48 | 119,026.38 | 70.11 | 151.47 | 29.13 | |
RCP8.5 | 51,142.07 | 17,440.52 | 19.85 | 118,639.16 | 69.88 | 169.62 | 32.62 | |
2070: Clade ‘Cairns’ | RCP2.6 | 25,371.50 | 45,879.01 | 20.57 | 74,331.53 | 74.55 | 224.40 | 43.15 |
RCP4.5 | 43,708.87 | 8466.85 | 35.35 | 55,994.16 | 56.16 | 188.22 | 36.20 | |
RCP6.0 | 49,885.82 | 11,535.67 | 38.46 | 49,817.21 | 49.97 | 186.34 | 35.83 | |
RCP8.5 | 56,555.56 | 6707.94 | 50.00 | 43,147.47 | 43.28 | 193.32 | 37.18 | |