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Table 1 Summary of climate change scenarios on Ctenocephalides felis in Australia

From: Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia

Scenario Current area lost (km2) Area of expansion from current area (km2) % change in area Area common to current (km2) % current distribution retained Distance to current centroid (km) Rate of habitat change (km/decade)
2050: All RCP2.6 301,018.50 22,108.26 29.08 658,022.32 68.61 242.25 75.70
RCP4.5 381,786.81 17,326.07 38.00 577,255.01 60.19 271.92 84.98
RCP6.0 331,719.37 33,929.15 31.05 627,322.45 65.41 338.55 105.80
RCP8.5 436,877.55 26,587.09 42.78 522,164.27 54.45 397.14 124.11
2050: Clade ‘Sydney’ RCP2.6 339,388.78 21,636.39 29.70 730,538.19 68.28 215.18 67.24
RCP4.5 439,006.97 11,379.71 39.97 630,919.96 65.79 264.77 82.74
RCP6.0 383,161.11 26,691.03 33.32 686,765.86 71.61 295.67 92.40
RCP8.5 501,527.03 21,790.32 44.84 568,399.94 59.27 391.65 122.39
2050: Clade ‘Darwin’ RCP2.6 55,972.30 24,097.10 18.77 113,808.92 67.03 93.97 29.37
RCP4.5 29,695.90 45,457.57 9.28 140,085.23 82.93 157.61 49.25
RCP6.0 63,586.33 17,515.69 27.14 106,194.89 62.55 56.51 17.70
RCP8.5 40,364.56 51,701.02 6.68 129,416.66 76.23 128.77 40.24
2050: Clade ‘Cairns’ RCP2.6 47,923.57 16,947.30 31.07 51,779.46 51.93 206.82 64.50
RCP4.5 28,949.99 34,684.10 5.75 70,753.04 70.96 252.40 78.88
RCP6.0 49,881.97 17,574.75 32.40 49,820.06 49.97 132.11 41.28
RCP8.5 49,642.17 29,042.64 20.66 50,060.86 50,21 312.68 97.71
2070: All RCP2.6 280,744.69 38,814.52 25.23 678,297.13 70.72 232.17 44.65
RCP4.5 426,441.54 18,276.39 42.56 532,600.28 55.53 343.84 66.12
RCP6.0 478,536.97 15,717.72 48.26 480,504.85 50.10 353.93 68.06
RCP8.5 589,158.53 16,349.90 59.73 369,883.29 38.57 524.61 100.89
2070: Clade ‘Sydney’ RCP2.6 318,234.54 36,549.23 26.33 751,692.43 70.26 218.69 42.06
RCP4.5 495,955.62 12,628.19 45.17 573,971.35 53.65 332.05 63.86
RCP6.0 526,910.57 10,408.90 48.27 507,016.40 47.39 347.37 71.99
RCP8.5 672,242.71 9979.55 61.90 297,684.26 27.82 521.00 100.19
2070: Clade ‘Darwin’ RCP2.6 30,060.54 70,319.91 23.71 139,720.68 82.30 132.10 25.40
RCP4.5 52,684.02 24,798.35 16.42 117,097.20 68.70 131.59 25.31
RCP6.0 50,754.84 41,335.67 55.48 119,026.38 70.11 151.47 29.13
RCP8.5 51,142.07 17,440.52 19.85 118,639.16 69.88 169.62 32.62
2070: Clade ‘Cairns’ RCP2.6 25,371.50 45,879.01 20.57 74,331.53 74.55 224.40 43.15
RCP4.5 43,708.87 8466.85 35.35 55,994.16 56.16 188.22 36.20
RCP6.0 49,885.82 11,535.67 38.46 49,817.21 49.97 186.34 35.83
RCP8.5 56,555.56 6707.94 50.00 43,147.47 43.28 193.32 37.18
  1. Note: Total area predicted to be occupied at > 50% probability, distance from each projected centroid and rate per decade of habitat change
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