Fig. 3

The estimation of final size (K) with variable turning points from the selected growth model. In each panel, the horizontal axis is the end time of fitting, and the vertical axis is the final size, K, or the reported number of cumulative (cum.) counts, C(t), of ZIKV incidences. The vertical dashed blue line indicates the start time of the epidemic, which is also the start time of fitting. The vertical dashed black line indicates the end time of the epidemic, which is also the largest end time of fitting. The vertical purple line is the estimated turning point, τ, by using the full dataset, which matches the models with the lowest AICs in Tables 1 and 2. The cyan curve is the fitted cumulative epidemic curve, and the triangular dots are the reported number of cumulative ZIKV incidences. The red line is the estimated final size against the end time of fitting. The red dot at the end is the final size estimation by using the full dataset, which matches the models with the lowest AICs in Tables 1 and 2. The red shading area represents the 95% CI