Table 1 Summary table of the model fitting and estimation results. The models results summarized here are also estimated by using the full epidemic dataset during the whole epidemic period. The models with the lowest AICs (for the same states) are considered as main results, which matches the results in Fig 2. The numbers in parentheses are the 95% CIs
State | Population | Model | Durationa | Epidemic notice period | Final size | Reproduction number | Turning pointb | Turning date | R 2 | AIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Acre | 803,513 | Richards | 148 | 26.11.2015–23.04.2016 | 783 (774–793) | 2.13 (2.07–2.19) | 111 (110–113) | 17.03.2016 (15.03.2016–18.03.2016) | 0.9995 | 108.1 |
Acre | 803,513 | Gompertz | 148 | 26.11.2015–23.04.2016 | 925 (804–1045) | 2.25 (1.82–2.76) | 96 (91–100) | 01.03.2016 (25.02.2016–05.03.2016) | 0.9887 | 176.8 |
Acre | 803,513 | Logistic | 148 | 26.11.2015–23.04.2016 | 858 (804–912) | 3.45 (2.94–4.04) | 101 (98–104) | 07.03.2016 (03.03.2016–10.03.2016) | 0.9934 | 162.9 |
Bahia | 15,203,934 | Richards | 218 | 29.10.2015–04.06.2016 | 55,472 (54,683–56,260) | 1.63 (1.58–1.68) | 135 (132–139) | 13.03.2016 (09.03.2016–16.03.2016) | 0.9984 | 164.5 |
Bahia | 15,203,934 | Gompertz | 218 | 29.10.2015–04.06.2016 | 59,773 (56,293–63,252) | 1.89 (1.68–2.13) | 113 (110–117) | 20.02.2016 (16.02.2016–24.02.2016) | 0.9885 | 227.8 |
Bahia | 15,203,934 | Logistic | 218 | 29.10.2015–04.06.2016 | 58,896 (56,603–61,189) | 2.21 (2.03–2.40) | 121 (118–125) | 27.02.2016 (24.02.2016–02.03.2016) | 0.9922 | 213.5 |
Espirito Santo | 3,929,911 | Richards | 84 | 23.01.2016–16.04.2016 | 2066 (1913–2219) | 2.42 (1.78–3.25) | 38 (32–44) | 29.02.2016 (23.02.2016–07.03.2016) | 0.9963 | 8.6 |
Espirito Santo | 3,929,911 | Gompertz | 84 | 23.01.2016–16.04.2016 | 2293 (1993–2592) | 2.11 (1.68–2.64) | 30 (25–35) | 22.02.2016 (16.02.2016–27.02.2016) | 0.9940 | 14.8 |
Espirito Santo | 3,929,911 | Logistic | 84 | 23.01.2016–16.04.2016 | 2132 (2020–2243) | 3.05 (2.73–3.41) | 35 (32–38) | 27.02.2016 (24.02.2016–29.02.2016) | 0.9960 | 7.6 |
Goiania City | 6,610,681 | Richards | 155 | 10.12.2015–14.05.2016 | na | na | na | na | na | na |
Goiania City | 6,610,681 | Gompertz | 155 | 10.12.2015–14.05.2016 | 2578 (2437–2718) | 1.89 (1.79–2.00) | 104 (102–106) | 23.03.2016 (21.03.2016–25.03.2016) | 0.9989 | 192.5 |
Goiania City | 6,610,681 | Logistic | 155 | 10.12.2015–14.05.2016 | 2243 (2184–2303) | 3.07 (2.92–3.24) | 109 (108–111) | 29.03.2016 (27.03.2016–30.03.2016) | 0.9991 | 186.2 |
Mato Grosso | 3,265,486 | Richards | 134 | 29.10.2015–12.03.2016 | na | na | na | na | na | na |
Mato Grosso | 3,265,486 | Gompertz | 134 | 29.10.2015–12.03.2016 | 19,791 (18,147–21,435) | 1.67 (1.56–1.79) | 73 (69–76) | 10.01.2016 (06.01.2016–14.01.2016) | 0.9978 | 83.2 |
Mato Grosso | 3,265,486 | Logistic | 134 | 29.10.2015–12.03.2016 | 17,165 (16,411–17,920) | 2.47 (2.31–2.65) | 79 (77–82) | 17.01.2016 (14.01.2016–19.01.2016) | 0.9974 | 84.2 |
Parana | 11,163,018 | Richards | 141 | 14.01.2016–04.06.2016 | na | na | na | na | na | na |
Parana | 11,163,018 | Gompertz | 141 | 14.01.2016–04.06.2016 | 4382 (4162–4602) | 1.92 (1.80–2.04) | 79 (77–81) | 02.04.2016 (31.03.2016–02.04.2016) | 0.9984 | 102.1 |
Parana | 11,163,018 | Logistic | 141 | 14.01.2016–04.06.2016 | 4008 (3894–4123) | 2.82 (2.66–2.99) | 86 (84–87) | 09.04.2016 (07.04.2016–11.04.2016) | 0.9986 | 98.4 |
Pernambuco | 9,345,173 | Richards | 169 | 03.12.2015–21.05.2016 | 9936 (9770–10,102) | 1.85 (1.75–1.95) | 90 (87–93) | 02.03.2016 (29.02.2016–05.03.2016) | 0.9990 | 116.3 |
Pernambuco | 9,345,173 | Gompertz | 169 | 03.12.2015–21.05.2016 | 10,721 (10,168–11,273) | 1.85 (1.69–2.01) | 76 (73–79) | 17.02.2016 (14.02.2016–21.02.2016) | 0.9945 | 158.4 |
Pernambuco | 9,345,173 | Logistic | 169 | 03.12.2015–21.05.2016 | 10,323 (10,070–10,576) | 2.33 (2.21–2.45) | 84 (82–86) | 25.02.2016 (23.02.2016–27.02.2016) | 0.9975 | 136.8 |
Rio Grande | 11,247,972 | Richards | 162 | 24.12.2015–04.06.2016 | 595 (492–698) | 1.98 (1.65–2.36) | 124 (119–129) | 26.04.2016 (21.04.2016–01.05.2016) | 0.9962 | 120.6 |
Rio Grande | 11,247,972 | Gompertz | 162 | 24.12.2015–04.06.2016 | 772 (653–890) | 1.54 (1.43–1.65) | 120 (112–128) | 22.04.2016 (14.04.2016–30.04.2016) | 0.9971 | 114.5 |
Rio Grande | 11,247,972 | Logistic | 162 | 24.12.2015–04.06.2016 | 634 (575–693) | 2.15 (2.00–2.32) | 124 (118–129) | 26.04.2016 (20.04.2016–02.05.2016) | 0.9960 | 119.4 |