Table 2 Summary table of the real-time estimation results from the selected models. The model with the lowest AIC (for the same states) is selected for analysis. The models results using the full epidemic dataset during the whole epidemic period match the models with the lowest AICs in Table 1. The numbers in parentheses are the 95% CIs
State | Model | Durationa | Fitting period | Final size | Reproduction number | Turning pointb | Turning date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Acre | Richards | 120 | 26.11.2015–26.03.2016 | 908 (576–1239) | 2.16 (2.05–2.27) | 113 (107–118) | 18.03.2016 (13.03.2016–23.03.2016) |
Acre | Richards | 127 | 26.11.2015–02.04.2016 | 772 (747–797) | 2.12 (2.05–2.18) | 112 (110–114) | 17.03.2016 (15.03.2016–19.03.2016) |
Acre | Richards | 134 | 26.11.2015–09.04.2016 | 776 (761–790) | 2.12 (2.06–2.18) | 112 (110–114) | 17.03.2016 (15.03.2016–19.03.2016) |
Acre | Richards | 148 | 26.11.2015–23.04.2016 | 783 (774–793) | 2.13 (2.07–2.19) | 111 (110–113) | 17.03.2016 (15.03.2016–18.03.2016) |
Bahia | Richards | 155 | 29.10.2015–02.04.2016 | 50,249 (46,852–53,646) | 1.61 (1.57–1.65) | 137 (131–143) | 14.03.2016 (09.03.2016–20.03.2016) |
Bahia | Richards | 162 | 29.10.2015–09.04.2016 | 51,709 (49,237–54,181) | 1.61 (1.57–1.66) | 137 (132–141) | 14.03.2016 (09.03.2016–19.03.2016) |
Bahia | Richards | 169 | 29.10.2015–16.04.2016 | 52,963 (50,927–55,000) | 1.61 (1.57–1.66) | 136 (132–141) | 14.03.2016 (09.03.2016–18.03.2016) |
Bahia | Richards | 218 | 29.10.2015–04.06.2016 | 55,472 (54,683–56,260) | 1.63 (1.58–1.68) | 135 (132–139) | 14.03.2016 (09.03.2016–16.03.2016) |
Espirito Santo | Logistic | 42 | 23.01.2016–05.03.2016 | 1671 (766–2577) | 3.48 (2.22–5.30) | 27 (9–46) | 19.02.2016 (01.02.2016–08.03.2016) |
Espirito Santo | Logistic | 49 | 23.01.2016–12.03.2016 | 2126 (1112–3140) | 2.93 (2.15–3.96) | 35 (17–54) | 27.02.2016 (09.02.2016–16.03.2016) |
Espirito Santo | Logistic | 56 | 23.01.2016–19.03.2016 | 2364 (1609–3119) | 2.75 (2.21–3.40) | 39 (26–53) | 02.03.2016 (18.02.2016–15.03.2016) |
Espirito Santo | Logistic | 84 | 23.01.2016–16.04.2016 | 2132 (2020–2243) | 3.05 (2.73–3.41) | 35 (32–38) | 27.02.2016 (24.02.2016–29.02.2016) |
Goiania City | Logistic | 113 | 10.12.2015–02.04.2016 | 2040 (1751–2329) | 3.33 (3.05–3.63) | 106 (102–111) | 25.03.2016 (21.03.2016–30.03.2016) |
Goiania City | Logistic | 120 | 10.12.2015–09.04.2016 | 2230 (2015–2445) | 3.19 (2.98–3.41) | 109 (105–112) | 28.03.2016 (25.03.2016–31.03.2016) |
Goiania City | Logistic | 127 | 10.12.2015–16.04.2016 | 2092 (1974–2210) | 3.32 (3.12–3.53) | 107 (105–109) | 26.03.2016 (24.03.2016–28.03.2016) |
Goiania City | Logistic | 155 | 10.12.2015–14.05.2016 | 2243 (2184–2303) | 3.07 (2.92–3.24) | 109 (108–111) | 29.03.2016 (27.03.2016–30.03.2016) |
Mato Grosso | Gompertz | 77 | 29.10.2015–14.01.2016 | 12,901 (8235–17,567) | 2.03 (1.61–2.55) | 58 (47–69) | 26.12.2015 (16.12.2015–06.01.2016) |
Mato Grosso | Gompertz | 85 | 29.10.2015–23.01.2016 | 15,093 (10,750–19,436) | 1.85 (1.57–2.18) | 63 (53–73) | 31.12.2015 (22.12.2015–10.01.2016) |
Mato Grosso | Gompertz | 92 | 29.10.2015–30.01.2016 | 17,550 (12,927–22,172) | 1.72 (1.51–1.96) | 68 (58–78) | 05.01.2016 (26.12.2015–15.01.2016) |
Mato Grosso | Gompertz | 134 | 29.10.2015–12.03.2016 | 19,791 (18,147–21,435) | 1.67 (1.56–1.79) | 73 (69–76) | 10.01.2016 (06.01.2016–14.01.2016) |
Parana | Logistic | 92 | 14.01.2016–16.04.2016 | 4121 (2604–5637) | 2.90 (2.41–3.47) | 86 (73–99) | 09.04.2016 (27.03.2016–22.04.2016) |
Parana | Logistic | 99 | 14.01.2016–23.04.2016 | 3720 (3048–4393) | 3.05 (2.63–3.53) | 82 (75–89) | 06.04.2016 (30.03.2016–13.04.2016) |
Parana | Logistic | 106 | 14.01.2016–30.04.2016 | 3610 (3228–3992) | 3.12 (2.76–3.51) | 81 (77–86) | 05.04.2016 (31.03.2016–09.04.2016) |
Parana | Logistic | 141 | 14.01.2016–04.06.2016 | 4008 (3894–4123) | 2.82 (2.66–2.99) | 86 (84–87) | 09.04.2016 (07.04.2016–11.04.2016) |
Pernambuco | Richards | 106 | 03.12.2015–19.03.2016 | 10,694 (4222–17,165) | 1.81 (1.63–2.01) | 94 (78–109) | 06.03.2016 (19.02.2016–22.03.2016) |
Pernambuco | Richards | 113 | 03.12.2015–26.03.2016 | 9480 (7737–11,224) | 1.78 (1.67–1.89) | 91 (88–95) | 04.03.2016 (29.02.2016–07.03.2016) |
Pernambuco | Richards | 120 | 03.12.2015–02.04.2016 | 9320 (8512–10,127) | 1.77 (1.68–1.87) | 91 (88–94) | 03.03.2016 (29.02.2016–07.03.2016) |
Pernambuco | Richards | 169 | 03.12.2015–21.05.2016 | 9936 (9770–10,102) | 1.85 (1.75–1.95) | 90 (87–93) | 02.03.2016 (29.02.2016–05.03.2016) |
Rio Grande | Gompertz | 148 | 24.12.2015–21.05.2016 | 771 (563–979) | 1.54 (1.39–1.71) | 120 (107–134) | 22.04.2016 (09.04.2016–06.05.2016) |
Rio Grande | Gompertz | 155 | 24.12.2015–28.05.2016 | 765 (613–917) | 1.54 (1.42–1.68) | 120 (110–130) | 22.04.2016 (12.04.2016–02.05.2016) |
Rio Grande | Gompertz | 162 | 24.12.2015–04.06.2016 | 772 (653–890) | 1.54 (1.43–1.65) | 120 (112–128) | 22.04.2016 (14.04.2016–30.04.2016) |