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Fig. 2 | Parasites & Vectors

Fig. 2

From: Human population movement can impede the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth transmission in regions with heterogeneity in mass drug administration coverage and transmission potential between villages: a metapopulation analysis

Fig. 2

Probability of transmission resuming during twenty years of regular, seasonal movement. The probability of transmission resuming depends on the percentage of the population moving between villages and the STH prevalence in the source village. The probability estimate is based on the percentage of simulations out of 300 iterations in which the STH prevalence in the previously infection-free village reaches at least half of the equilibrium prevalence during the twenty-year observational period, given the transmission intensity and parasite aggregation in the source village. The solid line is the mean of ten sets of 300 iterative simulation runs. The shaded area is one standard deviation above and below the mean value. a, b Individuals moving between villages are young adults (1535 years-old). c, d Individuals moving between villages are children (< 15 years-old). a, c Results for A. lumbricoides. b, d Results for hookworm. Population size per village n = 500. Prevalence levels: low: < 20%; medium: 25–30%; high 6070%

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