Fig. 3

Model-predicted mf prevalences as measured by TBS20, given an mf prevalence based on a more sensitive diagnostic technique (horizontal axis, panels for different techniques). Dark grey bands represent 95%-confidence intervals for uncertainty of the population mean; light grey bands represent prediction uncertainty. Bullets represent data used to train the model, with horizontal and vertical error bars representing 95% confidence intervals for binomial sampling error. Different shapes of the dots characterise data from pre-control settings, data from settings where only some villages were treated (partially), or data from settings where it is unclear whether treatment has been provided