Table 2 Summary of model projections after following the recommended guidelines set by the WHO and suggestions for programmatic adaptations in cases where the WHO goals are not achieved for S. haematobium. We assume the goal is achieved when the probability of achieving it is predicted to be ≥ 0.75 (i.e. 75% plus of the simulations achieve the goal)
Baseline prevalence in SAC | Morbidity goal reached? | Elimination as a public health problem goal reached? | Programmatic adaptation |
|---|---|---|---|
Low (< 10%) | Low adult burden: Yes; within 2 years Moderate adult burden: Yes; within 2 years | Low adult burden: Yes; within 15 years Moderate adult burden: Yes; within 15 years | Low adult burden: na Moderate adult burden: na |
Moderate (10–50%) | Low adult burden: Yes; time depends on the baseline prevalence in SAC | Low adult burden: Yes; time depends on the baseline prevalence in SAC | Low adult burden: na |
Moderate adult burden: Yes; time depends on the baseline prevalence in SAC | Moderate adult burden: Varies depending on scenario | Moderate adult burden: Include adult treatment at 40% coverage | |
High (≥ 50%) | Low adult burden: Yes; time depends on the baseline prevalence in SAC | Low adult burden: Varies depending on scenario | Increase coverage to 85% for SAC and include adult treatment at 40% coverage |
Moderate adult burden: Yes; time depends on the baseline prevalence in SAC | Moderate adult burden: Not reached |