Fig. 5

Data and model prediction by the matched SFS model for all arms of the semi-field experiments from Mbita. Circles represent the proportion of mosquitoes caught by HLC in a specific night of the given experiment from the beginning of the night until the hour indicated on the horizontal axes. Note that the circles at hour 12 are the proportions of the HLC until hour 3 together with the HLC from hour 11.5 until hour 12, as this is used as a proxy for the HLC during the whole night. Triangles represent the proportion of mosquitoes caught by the trap in a specific night of the given experiment during the whole night. All proportions are with respect to the the number of mosquitoes released in the corresponding night. Solid curves represent the expectation of cumulative HLC counts over continuous time and dashed curves denote the expectation of cumulative trap counts over continuous time, as estimated with a model matching control and intervention experiments per night. The coloured areas represent histograms of simulated data by the fitted model. Per experiment, an average of 2428 mosquitoes in total was released (2370–2474). a, b In total, 1778 (a) and 771 (b) mosquitoes were caught by HLC in these experiments. c–f In total, 1843 (c), 1715 (d), 1980 (e) and 1262 (f) mosquitoes were caught by HLC, respectively, in these experiments, and a total of 1, 16, 6 and 46 mosquitoes, respectively, were caught in the trap