Table 3 Process (PDE model) and observation model parameters, prior distributions and sources

Mortality (\(\mu\))

\(\theta _\mu\): mixture (see Fig. 2)

Beta

Experts

Diffusion (D)

\(\theta _D\): mixture (see Fig. 2)

Log-normal

Experts

Swarm attraction (\(\alpha\))

\(\theta _\alpha = \{ -2, 1 \}\)

Log-normal

Weakly informative

Swarm range (\(\sigma\))

\(\theta _\sigma = \{3.5, 4 \}\)

Log-normal

Literature

Catchability cfr (\(p_{\text{cfr}}\))

\(\theta _{\text{cfr}} =\{1, 1\}\)

Beta

Weakly informative

Catchability psc (\(p_{\text{psc}}\))

\(\theta _{\text{psc}} =\{1.4, 1\}\)

Beta

SOP

Catchability SS (\(p_{\text{ss}}\))

\(\theta _{\text{ss}} =\{10, 20\}\)

Beta

SOP