Table 1 Time trend analysis of visceral leishmaniasis for eight epidemic provinces in China, 2004–2019
Areas | Number of cases 2004–2019 | Number of deaths 2004–2019 | Annual mean incidence (per 100,000 people) | Incidence rate ratio | Segmented period | Entire period | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004–2019 | 2004–2017 | 2018–2019 | Period | APC (95% CI) | Trend | AAPC (95% CI) | Trend | ||||
Gansu | 1605 | 3 | 0.3856 | 0.4115 | 0.2045 | 0.4970 | 2004–2009 | 13.7479 (− 1.1359, 30.8723) | Stable | − 3.8924 (− 8.6458, 1.1084) | Stable |
2009–2019 | − 11.6584* (− 15.8681, − 7.2382) | Decrease | |||||||||
Hebei | 8 | 0 | 0.0007 | 0.0005 | 0.0020 | 4.0000 | 2004–2019 | 89.4744* (20.1610, 198.7704) | Increase | 89.4744* (20.1610, 198.7704) | Increase |
Henan | 19 | 0 | 0.0012 | 0.0007 | 0.0052 | 7.4286 | 2004–2019 | 118.0616* (43.1933, 232.0749) | Increase | 118.0616* (43.1933, 232.0749) | Increase |
Inner Mongolia | 10 | 0 | 0.0026 | 0.0030 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 2004–2019 | − 48.6959* (− 70.2517, − 11.5207) | Decrease | − 48.6959* (− 70.2517, − 11.5207) | Decrease |
Shanxi | 144 | 0 | 0.0244 | 0.0109 | 0.1195 | 10.9633 | 2004–2019 | 76.9637* (20.9169, 158.9890) | Increase | 76.9637* (20.9169, 158.9890) | Increase |
Shaanxi | 136 | 0 | 0.0223 | 0.0144 | 0.0775 | 5.3819 | 2004–2019 | 25.3849* (19.9419, 31.0750) | Increase | 25.3849* (19.9419, 31.0750) | Increase |
Sichuan | 593 | 5 | 0.0453 | 0.0496 | 0.0150 | 0.3024 | 2004–2010 | 8.1144 (− 4.8372, 22.8286) | Stable | − 8.6387* (− 13.8294, − 3.1353) | Decrease |
2010–2019 | − 18.3390* (− 23.7769, − 12.5132) | Decrease | |||||||||
Xinjiang | 2250 | 3 | 0.6547 | 0.7423 | 0.0421 | 0.0567 | 2004–2016 | − 3.0432 (− 16.6773, 12.8219) | Stable | − 22.7750* (− 40.0054, -0.5961) | Decrease |
2016–2019 | − 68.9203 (− 91.3710, 11.9422) | Stable | |||||||||
Overall | 4877 | 13 | 0.0228 | 0.0243 | 0.0123 | 0.5062 | 2004–2019 | − 4.2564* (− 8.0856, − 0.2677) | Decrease | − 4.2564* (− 8.0856, − 0.2677) | Decrease |