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Table 1 Time trend analysis of visceral leishmaniasis for eight epidemic provinces in China, 2004–2019

From: Epidemiological features and spatial–temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in mainland China: a population-based surveillance study from 2004 to 2019

Areas Number of cases 2004–2019 Number of deaths 2004–2019 Annual mean incidence (per 100,000 people) Incidence rate ratio Segmented period Entire period
2004–2019 2004–2017 2018–2019 Period APC (95% CI) Trend AAPC (95% CI) Trend
Gansu 1605 3 0.3856 0.4115 0.2045 0.4970 2004–2009 13.7479 (− 1.1359, 30.8723) Stable − 3.8924 (− 8.6458, 1.1084) Stable
2009–2019 − 11.6584* (− 15.8681, − 7.2382) Decrease
Hebei 8 0 0.0007 0.0005 0.0020 4.0000 2004–2019 89.4744* (20.1610, 198.7704) Increase 89.4744* (20.1610, 198.7704) Increase
Henan 19 0 0.0012 0.0007 0.0052 7.4286 2004–2019 118.0616* (43.1933, 232.0749) Increase 118.0616* (43.1933, 232.0749) Increase
Inner Mongolia 10 0 0.0026 0.0030 0.0000 0.0000 2004–2019 − 48.6959* (− 70.2517, − 11.5207) Decrease − 48.6959* (− 70.2517, − 11.5207) Decrease
Shanxi 144 0 0.0244 0.0109 0.1195 10.9633 2004–2019 76.9637* (20.9169, 158.9890) Increase 76.9637* (20.9169, 158.9890) Increase
Shaanxi 136 0 0.0223 0.0144 0.0775 5.3819 2004–2019 25.3849* (19.9419, 31.0750) Increase 25.3849* (19.9419, 31.0750) Increase
Sichuan 593 5 0.0453 0.0496 0.0150 0.3024 2004–2010 8.1144 (− 4.8372, 22.8286) Stable − 8.6387* (− 13.8294, − 3.1353) Decrease
2010–2019 − 18.3390* (− 23.7769, − 12.5132) Decrease
Xinjiang 2250 3 0.6547 0.7423 0.0421 0.0567 2004–2016 − 3.0432 (− 16.6773, 12.8219) Stable − 22.7750* (− 40.0054, -0.5961) Decrease
2016–2019 − 68.9203 (− 91.3710, 11.9422) Stable
Overall 4877 13 0.0228 0.0243 0.0123 0.5062 2004–2019 − 4.2564* (− 8.0856, − 0.2677) Decrease − 4.2564* (− 8.0856, − 0.2677) Decrease
  1. APC annual percentage change, AAPC average annual percentage change
  2. *P value < 0.05