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Fig. 1 | Parasites & Vectors

Fig. 1

From: Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Fig. 1

Ensemble forecast with final submissions. A Most likely number of WNND cases from and B uncertainty (Shannon entropy) of ensemble model forecast. Mean ensemble model built using the last submitted versions of forecasts of all teams and negative binomial model (2000–2019 data). Shannon entropy measures the spread of probability across the binned case counts with a value of zero indicating high certainty in prediction (all probability in a single bin) and a value of one indicating high uncertainty in prediction (probability equally spread across all bins)

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