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Table 1 Model fit and comparison using goodness-of-fit parameters for An. gambiae (s.l.) and An. funestus (s.l.). Model 1 included environmental and climatic variables; random effects (household level and seasonal); intervention use; and spatial and temporal effects. Model 5, the least complex, included only climatic variables and random effects. RMSE and correlation were based on a holdout validation dataset selected randomly (n = 20) out of a total 107 households

From: Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria vector density from baseline through intervention in a high transmission setting

Vector species

Model

DIC

Model complexity

Marginal likelihood

RMSE

Correlation (Observed vs Predicted)

An. gambiae (s.l.)

Model 1

11083.56

122.05

-5743.87

1.1059

0.7963

Model 2

11080.09

119.87

-5745.77

1.0565

0.7800

Model 3

11082.78

120.42

-5757.49

1.0516

0.7777

Model 4

11330.18

58.34

-5838.05

1.0883

0.7594

Model 5

11329.69

56.37

-5827.67

1.0884

0.7592

An. funestus (s.l.)

Model 1

7188.35

134.51

-3783.64

0.9657

0.6937

Model 2

7221.12

129.62

-3756.08

0.9615

0.6984

Model 3

7194.15

119.54

-3764.33

0.9172

0.6930

Model 4

7385.89

51.22

-3815.50

0.9259

0.6233

Model 5

7385.90

50.89

-3806.26

0.9244

0.6252

  1. Abbreviations: DIC Deviance information criterion, RMSE Root mean square error