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Table 6 Estimated true number of cases and prevalence, by stage, project and overall

From: Prevalence and under-detection of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis during mass screening sessions in Uganda and Sudan

Project

Estimated number of cases (95% confidence interval)

Prevalence in% (95% confidence interval)

 

Observed

True cases among observed

True cases overall

Observed†

True‡

Kiri

stage 1

114

135, 143 (127–158)

177, 315 (255–388)

0.23

0.31, 0.56 (0.45-0.69)

stage 2

107

86, 71 (55–86)

86, 189 (145–257)

0.22

0.15, 0.33 (0.26-0.45)

Total

221

221, 214 (207–219)

263, 507 (429–608)

0.45

0.46, 0.90 (0.76-1.07)

Adjumani

stage 1

692

868, 913 (863–963)

1129, 1628 (1485–1775)

0.44

0.38, 0.54 (0.49-0.59)

stage 2

727

551, 463 (410–513)

648, 993 (872–1128)

0.46

0.22, 0.33 (0.29-0.38)

Total

1419

1419, 1375 (1360–1389)

1777, 2618 (2436–2811)

0.90

0.59, 0.87 (0.81-0.94)

Arua-Yumbe

stage 1

327

404, 392 (366–417)

495, 624 (564–693)

0.12

0.14, 0.17 (0.15-0.19)

stage 2

243

166, 135 (109–162)

153, 262 (214–321)

0.09

0.04, 0.07 (0.06-0.09)

Total

570

570, 527 (510–540)

648, 888 (816–974)

0.21

0.18, 0.24 (0.22-0.27)

  1. †Observed cases divided by the total population actually screened. ‡Estimated cases divided by the total population targeted for screening.
  2. Estimated figures indicate, respectively, sum of best-fitting values for each screening session, median of bootstrapping replicate samples (95% percentile of bootstrapping samples).