Figure 3

Maps of the predicted abundances of (A, B) An. funestus , (C, D) An. coluzzii , and (E, F) An. gambiae s.s. for one night during the dry and the rainy seasons. Predicted abundance maps were computed based on the final multivariate negative-binomial zero-truncated models. Two seasonal maps of predicted abundance of the three species were computed for the 15/01/2009 (dry season) and the 30/06/2009 (rainy season) that reflected the meteorological extrema of the year 2009. Covariates for which data were not available at all points of the area were set at a constant value equal to the mean calculated for overall villages. Abundance predictions were produced only in areas of high probability of presence of the vectors according to the binomial models performed in [13]. Probability thresholds of 0.13, 0.21, and 0.12 were used for An. funestus, An. coluzzii, and An. gambiae s.s. respectively. These thresholds were those maximising specificity and sensitivity of the binomial models (see [13]). Areas with low probability of presence are coloured in blue in the maps. Measured abundances correspond to data collected during survey 1 (January, dry season) and 4 (June 2009, rainy season). Numbers in panel A refer to the dates of collection in each village with 1: 17/01 and 25/06; 2: 19/01 and 18/06; 3: 22/01 and 23/06; 4: 24/01 and 27/06; 5: 27/01 and 20/06; 6: 29/01 and 16/06. Because predicted and measured abundances are presented for different days, these data should be compared carefully.