Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy

Table 2 Predicting season length (SEASL)

Model	Variable	Weight	Coeff.	Std. error	z-value	Pr(>\|z\|)
Early	Intercept		59.57	15.42	3.86	< 0.001
	NDWI_10.21	1	85.23	31.52	2.7	0.007
	DAY_PREC_2–13	0.99	-0.5	0.14	3.65	< 0.001
	LST _8–19	0.78	1.5	0.85	1.76	0.079
Early + Late	Intercept		-19.11	28.45	0.67	0.501
	NDWI_10–21	1	104.26	31.36	3.32	0.001
	LST_16–27	0.98	3.78	1.26	2.98	0.003
	DAY_PREC_20–31	0.79	0.29	0.1	2.88	0.004
	LST _8–19	0.53	0.1	1.11	0.09	0.926
	DAY_PREC _2–13	0.4	-0.28	0.16	1.73	0.083

The average weight and significance of variables remaining in the two best 'Early predictors only' and six best 'Early + Late predictors' models. Note that terms in italics are significant in some of the selected best models but not in others, and that overall, weighted model averaging procedures suggest that they are not significant.

ISSN: 1756-3305