Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus

Parasites & Vectors

Table 2 Data on the performance of the different indicators in discriminating suitable and non-suitable climate for Ae. albopictus according to surveillance data collected in the United States from 1999-2011

Indicator	Cut-off	Sensitivity (%)			Specificity (%)			% Correctly classified
		A	B	C	A	B	C	A	B	C
OW	0 versus ≥1	90.51	90.25	93.18	90.15	90.41	45.83	90.19	90.39	68.83
	≤ 1 versus ≥2	83.28	84.12	85.43	92.35	92.59	58.57	91.31	91.61	71.61
	≤ 2 versus ≥3	72.89	71.59	75.35	93.83	94.12	65.45	91.43	91.52	70.26
	AUC	A = 0.912 (95% CI 0.900-0.9240), B = 0.912 (95% CI 0.895-929), C = 0.742 (95% CI = 0.718-0.766)
OWAT	0 versus ≥1	90.51	90.25	93.18	91.32	91.57	39.97	91.22	91.42	65.81
	≤ 1 versus ≥2	90.51	90.25	93.18	91.59	91.86	41.29	91.47	91.68	66.49
	≤ 2 versus ≥3	90.21	89.97	92.71	92.18	92.52	43.19	91.95	92.22	67.24
	≤ 3 versus ≥4	89.31	88.86	91.94	92.60	92.95	45.53	92.23	92.48	69.07
	AUC	A = 0.914 (95% CI 0.903-0.926), B = 0.915 (95% CI 0.898-0.931), C = 0.688 (95% CI 0.666-0.709)
SIG	Cut point 64.64	90.06	89.14	91.47	78.75	80.13	41.29	80.05	81.17	65.66
	Cut point 66.69	84.49	83.29	88.84	92.18	92.88	45.10	91.29	91.77	66.34
	AUC	A = 0.925 (95% CI 0.916-0.934), B = 0.925 (95% CI 0.913-0.936), C = 0.709 (95% CI 0.681-0.737)

Values indicated by the letter A were obtained using data obtained from the full grid of climate data, Values indicated by the letter B were obtained using a reduced database of grid cells with the same sample size (3112) as the numbers of United States counties in the original surveillance data. Values indicated by the letter C were obtained using only data from south of 40°N and east of 105°W. AUC = Area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic curve; CI = Confidence interval.

ISSN: 1756-3305