Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission

Table 4 Best fit models of Crocidura spp. abundance above 1300 m with climate and crop variables

Model	R ²	AIC	∆AIC	Model parameters	Parameter estimate
Climate variables only – Above 1300 m
1	0.58	−245.6	0	Precipitation – 3 mo. lag	0.28
1	0.58	−245.6	0	Mean temperature – 0 mo. lag	−0.15
2	0.56	−244.3	1.3	Precipitation – 3 mo. lag	0.41
2	0.56	−244.3	1.3	Precipitation – 4 mo. lag	−0.25
Climate and crop variables – Above 1300 m
1	0.60	−247.6	0	Precipitation – 3 month lag	0.43
1	0.60	−247.6	0	Potato harvest – 2 mo. lag	−0.32
2	0.58	−245.7	1.9	Precipitation – 3 mo. lag	0.53
2	0.58	−245.7	1.9	Pumpkin harvest – 3 mo. lag	−0.29

Model r², AIC, and ∆AIC values and parameter estimates for all models with ∆AIC <2 and parameter estimates significant at an α = 0.05 confidence level. ∆AIC represents the difference between a model’s AIC value and the AIC value of the best fit overall model. Parameter estimate values are expressed as a change in abundance per 100 trap nights as a result of a 1°C increase in temperature, 100 mm increase in precipitation, or per each additional homestead at a trapping location harvesting a given crop.

ISSN: 1756-3305