Comparison of model output ‘infection risk’ at baseline (2006–2015) with empirical prevalence estimates. a) Baseline risk map. Background colour shows model output ‘infection risk’, averaged across scenarios, and translated into proportion of maximum risk. Greyscale circles show empirical prevalence data. b) Model output ‘infection risk’ plotted against empirical prevalence data. The red squares show mean prevalence for all 279 grid squares for which any prevalence data were available. The blue diamonds show mean prevalence for 100 grid squares for which higher quality and more suitable prevalence data were available (‘selected data’). Infection risk has been translated into proportion of maximum infection risk. The green line shows where prevalence and translated infection risk are equal.