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Table 3 Model calibration to tsetse and NHA trypanosome prevalence and validation to 2013 stage I HAT incidence

From: Evaluating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in Guinea

  Data Estimates from base-case model (no NHA reservoir) Estimates from model with NHA
Tsetse prevalence (2008) Assumed < 1 % 0.0018 % (95 % CI:0.001–0.0040 %) 0.08 % (95 % CI:0.002–0.4 %)
NHA prevalence (2008) Assumed < 1 % Fixed at 0 % 0.3 % (95 % CI: 0.0005–0.9 %)
Stage I HAT incidence (2013) 0.07 % (95 % CI: 0.01–0.2 %) 0.15 % (95 % CI: 0.07–0.2 %) 0.17 % (95 % CI: 0.06–0.21 %)