Fig. 4

Projected incidence for HAT beginning in 2013 for Models 1, 4, 6 and 7 under posterior median parameterisation. Stars show the simulated years of elimination as a public health problem under either (i) continuing with the mean level of screening or (ii) continuing with the maximum level of screening achieved between 2000 and 2012. The imperfect specificity of the diagnostic algorithm used in active screening results in persistent reporting of actively detected cases even after elimination has been achieved