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Table 3 Progression to KA depending on baseline rK39 sero-status. Hazard ratios and p-values estimated from fitted Cox proportional hazards regression models

From: Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control

Baseline sero-status

Total evaluated

Progressors (%)

Hazard ratio (95 % CI)

p

Seronegative, rK39 ELISA < 20CU

1,283

28 (2 %)

Ref.

N/A

Seropositive, 20CU ≤ rK39 ELISA < 61CU

204

7 (3 %)

1.61 (0.71–3.70)

0.26

Strongly seropositive, rK39 ELISA ≥ 61CU

28

8 (29 %)

17.7 (8.05–38.8)

8.4 × 10−13